Millions of Kenyans have been voting in an election that pits the longtime opposition politician Raila Odinga against the deputy president, William Ruto.
In Kayole, a poor neighbourhood in the capital, Nairobi, residents woke up to the sound of vuvuzelas and whistles from 4am – a rallying call to get out and vote.
Geoffrey Otieno, 26, an artisan in the informal sector, marshalled his neighbours to the nearest polling station. “I’m waking up this early to vote for Baba (Odinga) because of his plans for healthcare and food security. I’m able to put food on the table, but many people I know are not,” he said.
Odinga, 77, a former prime minister, has pledged to introduce a health-care-for-all system called “Babacare” and allocate 6,000 shillings (£41) a month to each vulnerable household.
Kenya is facing a cost of living crisis, fuelled by the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has cut global food supply chains and affected food prices and availability in the country. “Life has been hard,” said Atieno Okello, a salon owner from the area. “Things have really gone up and it’s really hit us hard.”
Odinga has run a campaign centring on social protection, a revival of agriculture and manufacturing, and anti-corruption. He is backed by his former-nemesis, the outgoing president, Uhuru Kenyatta, who had a falling out with Ruto during his final term.
Odinga and Kenyatta put their long political rivalry to rest after a handshake in 2018, meant to signify that they were moving on from bitterly fought, ethnically divisive elections in 2017 in an effort to unify the country.
Ruto, 55, has had a political career spanning decades. The live chicken-seller turned billionaire has been dogged by corruption allegations for years, though never indicted.
He has positioned himself in the race as an underdog and a class warrior – a move that observers say gave him mileage in his efforts to take on the country’s most powerful political families.
The populist candidate has fronted a “bottom-up” economic model that he says would empower low-income communities.
“Ruto will bring development for the youth,” said Munia Musyoka, 35, a motorcycle taxi rider from Kayole. “For him to get to where he is, he’s ambitious and can definitely change things for us.”
Voter turnout in poor areas like Kayole and Mathare was strong, but more sparse in middle-income neighbourhoods like Kilimani.
“The middle class have historically been a weak link,” said political analyst Mark Bichachi. “They suffer from a sense of absurdism – that the issues are too big for their vote to count.”
With the country’s poor far-outnumbering its rich and middle class, support along economic lines could shift the tides in Ruto’s favour. Kenya is a highly unequal country. Less than 0.1% of the population own more than the 99% of the country’s wealth, according to an Oxfam report. In Nairobi, more than 60% of the population live in overcrowded informal settlements that occupy just 5% of the total area of the city.
“Kenya has always been ripe for the kind of class politics Ruto has advanced,” said says Murithi Mutiga, programme director for Africa at the International Crisis Group thinktank. “Whether he wins or loses, he’s had a definitive impact on the public discourse.”
But ethnic politics are still at the centre of Kenyan elections. For the first time in more than a decade, there is no leading candidate from the Kikuyu community, the largest ethnic group in Kenya and one that has produced the majority of the country’s presidents. Analysts say this has defused ethnic tensions in the 2022 elections.
“Past elections tended to be quite divisive because they were essentially referendums on perceived Kikuyu elite economic and political domination,” said Mutiga.
With votes from the bloc up for grabs, competition for influence has been stiff, and both Ruto and Odinga have selected running mates from the Kikuyu heartlands of south-central Kenya.
But the tough economic realities facing Kenyans have pushed campaigning beyond ethnic and personality-driven politics. The outgoing Kenyatta government has faced growing criticism over the rising cost of living, high unemployment rates and public debt.
“The Kenyatta endorsement has been a mixed blessing for Odinga,” said Mutiga, adding that it had forced the latter to run a fairly conservative campaign. Odinga has been accused of softening his criticism of the government since the 2018 handshake.
While the general elections are high stakes for the political elite, with voting also taking place for parliament and local government, they have attracted less than usual public interest.
Mutiga said there was public exhaustion over the shifting alliances. “They’ve wised up to the fact that the political elite are divided by very little,” he said.
Some are even boycotting the elections.“I don’t trust them,” said Jacqueline Muturi, 29, of the presidential frontrunners, citing their involvement in the 2007 post-election violence, which engulfed the country after a disputed election – leaving over 1,000 Kenyans dead and hundreds of thousands displaced.
Voting at most polling stations has been fairly peaceful and analysts say that violence is unlikely.
The electoral body is expected to announce a winner within a week but analysts say a leading candidate is expected to emerge within days. To win the election in the first round, Odinga or Ruto will need to gain more than 50% of the total votes and at least 25% of those cast in at least 24 of 47 counties.
