While few would suggest that the party that puts up the most campaign materials will always win an election, posters are nonetheless a reasonable indication of who enjoys the most support locally – and in Rishi Sunak’s North Yorkshire constituency they are conspicuously absent.
In previous elections, Conservative placards have lined the network of A-roads that span Richmond and Northallerton like rows of dominoes. But this week there are none to be seen – and in Richmond itself there is a smattering of Labour and Liberal Democrat posters.
In 2019 Sunak won the seat with 63.3% of the vote, and constituency boundaries are not much changed this time. He is still favourite to win here, but he may have a tougher-than-anticipated fight on his hands.
In the Talbot Hotel, a pub on Richmond’s market square, the landlady, Michelle Atkins, 48, says the election is a hot topic of conversation and that “they’re saying Labour”.
Atkins hasn’t fully made up her mind yet but she’s leaning the same way, despite having never voted Labour before. “Labour are saying better things that they’re going to do but we’ve never given them the chance,” she says. “We’ve voted for [the Conservatives] so many times but nothing has been done about anything.”
Does she think Sunak will win again in Richmond? “I hope not,” she says.
On a sunny weekday afternoon, the streets of Richmond are busy with shoppers. One, Jessica Parker, 35, who works in retail, says she voted Conservative last time but is considering an independent candidate this time, “just because I feel like it’s the best of a bad bunch”.
“I just feel a bit disillusioned with it all,” she says. “Especially during Covid, I feel like everyone was lied to a bit. I know that was Boris Johnson, not Rishi Sunak, but I do feel we’ve been lied to.”
Alan Slater, 71, who worked on building sites before he retired, is planning to vote Reform. As he says this, a woman walking behind him voices her support, shouting “Reform!”.
Slater is a lifelong Conservative voter but says they have “let us down with a lot of things – immigration, and they didn’t deliver Brexit,” adding: “They’ve behaved badly.”
Julie Saxby, 66, cannot remember the last time she voted, but this time she will, probably for Labour.
Saxby doesn’t know how either of the main parties can fix the country’s problems. She worked for the NHS for 47 years, most recently as a community psychiatric nurse, and questions “how they’re going to recruit all these nurses”.
But she wants to be rid of the current government. “I think they need to be booted out. They’ve hammered the country,” she says.
Guy Sotheran, 55, the managing director of an asbestos removal company, voted Tory last time. Now he’s voting for “none of them, but especially not Sunak”.
“They’re full of false promises,” he says. A succession of scandals have also put him off the Conservatives. “With the [lockdown] parties, and now we’ve got [the betting scandal].”
Pub worker Steven Winstanley, 54, another former Tory voter, is opting for Reform this time. “Nigel Farage, to give him his credit, he speaks the truth, and that’s what’s lacking,” he says. “The NHS is the priority, and the cost of living. They’re the two main issues.”
The Labour candidate, Tom Wilson, knows he is a hostage to turnout and levels of tactical voting but believes there is a “very narrow path” to a “miracle” victory. He points to May’s North Yorkshire mayoral race, which Labour won comfortably. In North Yorkshire (not including York), Labour is only 3,000 overall votes behind the Tories, he says, despite not returning a single MP here in 2019.
“All the traditional loyalties that went out the door in 2019 for Labour in which working-class voters went Conservative, you’re almost seeing the mirror image,” he says. “[Places] that you think anyone living there would never vote any way other than Tory are switching to the Labour party as the main alternative.”
At the Talbot, Andy Larnach, 53, and John Aspden, 73, are enjoying a pint. Both are voting Conservative, but they’re pessimistic about Sunak’s chances.
“There’ve been a few things, but the thing that did it was when he left [the D-day commemorations in France] early,” Aspden says. He points out that Catterick, the largest military garrison in Europe, is in the constituency. “I’d like him to win so Labour don’t get in, but I don’t think he will.”
Larnach says: “I hope Rishi stays in but I’m struggling a bit.” Although the polls suggest otherwise in Richmond, he describes Sunak’s chances as “a long shot”.
“I’m just struggling with the negativity,” he adds. “Everyone you speak to says he’s going to be gone. But I’ve got faith and hope.”
