The members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences don’t always get it right, but this year’s batch of Oscar nominees is particularly well chosen.
A much-maligned body of voting members did a better job recognizing diverse talent, but whether coveted Oscar statutes end up in the hands of the most deserving candidates remains the biggest question. Here are my thoughts on who ought to win and my best predictions on who will actually take home the awards.
Directing
Who deserves to win: By far, the most talked-about movie of 2022 is Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (EEAAO). The directors, known collectively as “Daniels,” created a poignant, riotous, profoundly unique masterpiece blessed with a cast led by Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis. Disorienting, moving and visually stunning, the Daniels undoubtedly deserve this award.
Who will win: The Academy sure loves to pat itself on the back, so “The Fabelmans,” a movie about filmmaking by a household name like Steven Spielberg, appears to be a shoo-in. With its winning chances bolstered by performances from A-list celebrities Paul Dano and Michelle Williams, this Oscar is all but assured to go to Spielberg.
Actor in a supporting role
Who deserves to win: All five men nominated in this category gave award-winning performances, particularly Brian Tyree Henry for “Causeway” and Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for “The Banshees of Inisherin.” But this award belongs to Quan for his role in EEAAO. Playing a kind-hearted but taken-for-granted husband, Quan gives an emotionally wrought and action-packed performance, with his impressive martial arts background on full display.
Who will win: This category seems wide open and you wonder if the Academy will smile at “The Fabelmans” actor Judd Hirsch. He was last nominated 42 years ago for his role in “Ordinary People,” the longest span between nominations in Oscar history. Hollywood loves giving unofficial career achievement awards to distinguished actors in the twilight of their careers and Hirsch certainly qualifies. And let’s face it, the Academy skews older, white and male.
Actress in a supporting role
Who deserves to win: For her masterful break-out role in EEAAO, this award belongs to Stephanie Hsu. In the film, she plays the dual roles of Joy Wang and Jobu Tupaki. The former is the young daughter of Chinese immigrants whose overworked mother (Yeoh) is unaccepting of her lesbian identity, and the latter is a mega-powerful villain who threatens to destroy the multiverse (both the present and all other existing realities). In this role, Hsu gives a courageous performance while sometimes covered in rhinestones, clad in avant-garde costumes or even, at one point, voicing a rock (yes, a literal rock). Give her the Oscar, for goodness sake!
Who will win: I couldn’t believe it when I found out that Jamie Lee Curtis had never won an Oscar, but for her performance in EEAAO as a disgruntled, schlumpy IRS agent, she appears certain to win. A Hollywood darling and the daughter of actor Tony Curtis and actress Janet Leigh, Curtis gives a revelatory performance in the Daniels’ film, flaunting her acting chops — at once, investigating Yeoh’s character for tax fraud while, in another scene, lovingly stroking her face with hotdog fingers (yes, fingers made of hotdogs). Having recently won a Screen Actors Guild Award for this role, Curtis seems poised to take home this Oscar.
Actor in a leading role
Who deserves to win: I’ll be happy with any of the five possible outcomes, but I’m personally rooting for first-time Oscar nominee Paul Mescal for his performance in Charlotte Wells’ coming-of-age drama “Aftersun.” The 27-year-old Irish actor who made his film debut just two years ago in “The Lost Daughter” gives a devastating, knock-your-socks-off performance as a financially and emotionally struggling divorced dad on vacation in Turkey with his 11-year-old daughter.
Who will win: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy honors 31-year-old Austin Butler for his exceptional performance playing the titular role in Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis,” but I think the Oscar will go to Fraser for his heart-wrenching performance in “The Whale.” Fraser is a national treasure, and a much-deserved standing ovation that would follow his win would be amazing to see.
Actress in a leading role
Who deserves to win: You guessed it — my vote is absolutely for kick-ass martial arts star and actress extraordinaire Michelle Yeoh. Like her co-star Quan, Yeoh, she had also previously struggled to find work at points in her career and felt that the industry had ignored her. The mountain of praise heaped on Yeoh for her performance in EEAAO — simultaneously hilarious, heartbreaking and silly — is much deserved.
Who will win: Given the onslaught of glowing reviews, it’s sure seems that Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett will receive another Academy Award for her critically acclaimed turn as a renowned orchestra conductor accused of sexual assault in Todd Field’s psychological drama “Tár.” Blanchett absolutely deserves the award, but I just can’t root for her — I hated “Tár” so much that I walked out of the theater. For me, Blanchett’s character was so insufferable that I realized I didn’t care what happened to her.
Best picture
What deserves to win: Last year was full of many wonderful movies, and I find myself torn about which film should win best picture. On the one hand, Ruben Östlund’s “Triangle of Sadness” was a bitter and brutal portrayal of class warfare. On the other hand, “The Banshees of Inisherin” evoked laughter and tears, a beautiful, painful portrayal of friendships and rivalries. But the best picture should go to EEAAO. That would be a meaningful sign that daring, challenging, groundbreaking movies are rewarded — not shunned — by the Academy.
What will win: Much to my chagrin, I fear that the Academy will award Todd Field’s Tár with the title of Best Picture. I expected to love Tár given how much I enjoyed Field’s movie “In the Bedroom” and how much I love his 2006 film “Little Children.” But no, Tar had no redeeming qualities that I could discern. Then again, I thought “La La Land” was sure to win best picture in 2017 and was delighted when “Moonlight” claimed the title instead. It’s the Oscars — leave room for pleasant surprises!
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(Hanna Holzer is The Sacramento Bee’s opinion assistant.)
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