Making economic forecasts is difficult at any time. But in an age where investors have access to more data than ever, there seems to be more uncertainty than ever before. For example, in December 2025, many of the leading financial companies had a positive outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026.
One notable exception was JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). JPMorgan Global Research puts the probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026 at approximately 35%. The reasons: sticky inflation and the slowing labor market.
