After a dismal 2022, the stock market has mounted an impressive recovery this year, led by surging big tech names and A.I. plays. And despite stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, and consistent recession predictions from Wall Street for over a year now, the main street economy has remained resilient as well. U.S. GDP rose 1.1% in the first quarter, and the unemployment rate stuck near pre-pandemic lows in May at 3.7%.
Stifel’s Barry Bannister is taking the news in stride. The chief equity strategist predicted in January that stocks, led by cyclical growth sectors like tech, would rally in the first half of 2023, owing in large part to a sharp drop in inflation. He also correctly claimed that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)—the official arbiter of business cycles—would not declare a recession in the first half of the year.
