In today’s Middle East, one thing is certain and another, highly probable. The certainty is that there will be no independent, sovereign Palestinian state, ‘living side by side with Israel’, as the cliché goes. Before October 7, 2023, there was some possibility of a Palestinian state emerging at some time, even with several caveats. Many rounds of negotiations took place between the two sides to work out a detailed road map of how the two-state solution would look. In January, 2001, in Taba, they came close to reaching an agreement.
Hamas versus the Palestinian Authority
Post October 7, governments around the world have resurrected the two-state formula and are repeating it parrot-like. However, the formula is as good as dead. As of today, there is hardly anyone in Israel supporting a Palestinian state. Their reasoning is logical from their point of view. Hamas today is more popular in the West Bank than it ever was. This means that if and when the war ends on whatever terms, elections will have to be held in the Palestinian territories to elect a government. Even before October 7, Hamas had a good following among West Bank Palestinians. Now, support for Hamas has grown many fold. No Israeli is prepared to countenance that eventuality.
