Three years ago, Queensland delivered the stunning anti-Labor swing that kept Prime Minister Scott Morrison in the Lodge.
In 2022, with an election due to be called in the coming days, the Sunshine State remains critical — with Brisbane hosting a Labor campaign rally yesterday. But the election won’t be won and lost among blue-collar voters in regional Queensland alone.
Battleground seats are scattered across the country. And with a policy-lite poll, fought in the shadow of a pandemic that has been experienced differently in every state, both campaigns are left with an unpredictable electoral map to cover. Here’s how every state might prove crucial.
NSW
For months, NSW was seen as key to the Morrison government’s path to re-election. Now, the question is just how much the fallout from a bitter factional civil war, which left preselections delayed until the 11th hour, will hurt the party’s chances.
Over the weekend, the Liberals finally picked candidates in nine seats, including the former bellwether of Eden-Monaro, as well as once-safe electorates like Hughes and Warringah. But an ongoing court battle could put those, and the preselections of three sitting MPs, in jeopardy.
Even if Morrison gets his desired picks, that conflict has been another unwelcome distraction for the government that could dampen its NSW campaign. Labor meanwhile have been pushing hard for the Central Coast seat of Robertson, where Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese spent time this weekend. Suburban Sydney electorates like Reid, Lindsay and Banks are also being targeted.
Then there are the leafy inner-city independents in places like Wentworth and Mackellar in north Sydney. Even if they don’t win in blue-ribbon Liberal seats, their presence is enough to drain resources from the government’s campaign.
Queensland
How good is Queensland? Good enough to host the Coalition’s campaign headquarters, and at least one debate between Morrison and Albanese. The good news for the government is that, thanks to the 2019 swing, they hold 22 of the 30 seats there, mostly on pretty good margins. According to quarterly analysis of Newspoll, and Roy Morgan’s latest survey, it’s the only state where the government leads on a two-party preferred basis.
The bad news is there’s not much room to grow from there. Labor are targeting seats like Longman and Brisbane around the capital as well as Leichhardt, Flynn and Capricornia in the regions. The big question is whether the party’s goldilocks approach to net zero emissions is enough to win back those regional areas.
Interestingly The Greens are optimistic about causing an upset in urban seats like Griffith and Ryan.
Victoria
Victoria was Labor’s strongest state in 2019 and, on current polling, still looks good for Labor. The real wildcard is just how much anti-government sentiment remains from Melbourne’s long lockdowns, and where voters choose to direct that anger.
Chisholm, held by occasionally-embattled Liberal MP Gladys Liu on a 0.5% margin, will be the most important seat in the state. Independent Monique Ryan is giving Treasurer Josh Frydenberg a stiff run in Kooyong, while Liberal MP Tim Wilson faces a threat from former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel in Goldstein.
Western Australia
For most of the past year, both Albanese and Morrison have been locked out of WA. Since Omicron forced Premier Mark McGowan to tear down his wall, both leaders have had a chance to venture to that strange, foreign dictatorship out west.
McGowan’s border helped him destroy the Coalition in a state election last year. He’s such a potent electoral force that even Morrison, after months of potshots, took a few photo-ops with the premier during a recent visit.
WA hasn’t been a great stomping ground for federal Labor lately, but recent polling shows the party could pick up at least three seats — Swan, Pearce and Hasluck, held by Indigenous Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt. Ben Morton, another minister and key Morrison ally, is in trouble in Tangney.
South Australia
The government is already on notice here, after voters dumped Liberal Steven Marshall at the state election after just one term. That’s given Labor greater hopes of picking up marginal Boothby, where Liberal Nicolle Flint is retiring.
Tasmania
Morrison spent the weekend on a whirlwind tour of Tasmania, where Labor is targeting the ultra-marginal seats of Braddon and Bass. The government, meanwhile, hopes to pick up Lyons. The PM didn’t get the warmest reception from some locals.
The Senate race there is also heating up — Jacqui Lambie wants to add another senator, while veteran conservative Liberal Eric Abetz is fighting for his political life.
Northern Territory
The NT has mostly been strong territory for Labor recently. But the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon in the vast electorate of Lingiari puts it on the Country Liberals’ radar, with Barnaby Joyce throwing millions in infrastructure at the seat, and making a big huff about the government’s plans to win it back recently. Solomon is also held by Labor on just a 3.1% margin. Come election night, it’s worth keeping an eye on the Territory.
