The Cleveland Browns need an answer at the quarterback position, and that may lead them back to Sam Darnold.
We had this discourse back in 2018 when debating between Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson in the NFL draft. The Browns settled on Mayfield and the history there and since he left Cleveland has written itself.
Jameis Winston has restored some fun and explosiveness to the Cleveland offense this season, as seen by the numbers of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy since he took over at quarterback, but the constant turnovers are shooting his chances of returning to Cleveland in the foot.
This could lead the Browns to turn to Darnold as he is putting together a Pro Bowl season with the Minnesota Vikings on a one-year deal.
The rise of Sam Darnold
The career trajectory of Sam Darnold has been nothing but abnormal since being selected by the New York Jets with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft. However, at just the age of 28, the former USC quarterback has found his footing in the NFL with plenty of time to see two more big contracts at this current rate.
It did not work out in New York. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers. It did not work out with the Panthers. Darnold opted to sign as the backup quarterback with the San Francisco 49ers to sit and learn from one of the best in Kyle Shanahan in 2023. That seems to have paid off.
This season under head coach Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota, Darnold has experienced a Geno Smith-like renaissance. Coming off of a dominant week over the Atlanta Falcons, winning NFC Offensive Player of the Week (throwing for 347 yards and five touchdowns!), Darnold now sits with 3,300 yards and 28 touchdowns with four games left to play in the regular season.
He has the Vikings sitting with a record of 11-2 on the season and in the hunt for an NFC North title.
The Vikings, however, drafted Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. They seem content to let Darnold cash his check this offseason elsewhere after serving his time as a bridge quarterback.
And Cleveland makes the most sense.
The answer is not in the 2025 NFL draft
Outside of Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, the 2025 NFL draft class of quarterbacks holds no answers. While Miami’s Cam Ward is also seen as a first round prospect, his play style resembles that of the quarterback the Browns are trying to get rid of.
Ward’s Turnover Worthy Plays have skyrocketed in ACC play, his time to throw is near the top in the entire country, and he opts to hunt big plays outside of structure rather than operate the offense on time that is in front of him. This is a snake oil-to-water fit with Stefanski and the Browns.
Penn State’s Drew Allar has drawn some late love as well, but his performance in the Big Ten Championship game was shaky at best, and he is best served with another year at the college level as he has not put NFL throws on tape at a high volume.
He has the tools but lacks elsewhere in his game. If he were to declare, he would need at least one year to sit and learn. The Browns, at the end of the day, have a talented, highly-paid roster and can compete again next year with a bit more offensive consistency.
A rookie quarterback is not the answer there.
The QB Collective connection
The QB Collective, billing themselves as a pro-style quarterback development pipeline started by Mike Shanahan, has been a string of yarn. It has connected quarterbacks to those who come from the Mike Shanahan/Gary Kubiak offense for years.
Darnold now finds himself intertwined on that map.
Coaches who have aligned themselves with the QB Collective include Kyle Shanahan, Kevin O’Connell (Darnold’s two most recent head coaches), Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay, and you guessed it: Kevin Stefanski.
The Vikings will turn to McCarthy in 2025, Shanahan will likely ride it out for one more year with Brock Purdy (although a return to the Bay Area would not be out of the question for Darnold), McDaniel has his quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa, and McVay has no reason to move off of Matthew Stafford who is still playing out of his mind.
That leaves Stefanski and the Browns.
Darnold’s scheme fit with the Browns
There is a huge advantage for the Browns to pursue a quarterback who has played the role of backup quarterback under Shanahan and who started with Pro Bowl-level success under O’Connell. Darnold would come to Cleveland with more than just a baseline understanding of what will be expected of him under Stefanski.
He would come in with an AP understanding of the offense already under his belt.
While the passing attack has a few different wrinkles added to it under offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey that Darnold would have to familiarize himself with, this would be no different than adjusting to the different wrinkles from Carolina to San Francisco to Minnesota over the last three years.
Relatively careful with the football as well, Darnold is middle of the road in Turnover Worthy Plays percentage while sitting second in the entire NFL in Big Time Throw percentage (according to PFF) this season with the Vikings. For a head coach who hates turnovers and has been yearning to create more explosive plays consistently, this could be Stefanski’s dream situation.
How much would Darnold command?
The most comparable contract to what Darnold would command is ironically enough the one that former Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield just received after a stellar season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a one-year deal.
With the cap rising and the quarterback market increasing as well, a deal for Darnold would come in north of Mayfield’s, but that is likely the starting point. Mayfield signed a three-year deal worth $100 million with the Buccaneers this offseason, coming in at a $33.33 million average per year clip.
A healthy estimate for Darnold’s next contract could look to come in around $35 million per year. At the same length as Mayfield’s, which also had $50 million in guarantees in it, Darnold could be staring down the barrel of a deal worth $105 million with around $60 million in guarantees in it.
This deal would make a significant difference for the Browns, a team that needs to find a quarterback below market rate while shedding Watson’s deal. A deal worth $35 million per year for a quarterback is easily doable for the Browns.
