Many observers in the West seem to assume that the victory of the Polish opposition in last weekend’s parliamentary election—the country’s return to liberal democracy after eight years of rule by the increasingly illiberal Law and Justice (PiS) party—will mean a return to the pre-populist era before the PiS came to power. In their minds, a new government under Civic Platform leader Donald Tusk will quickly reverse eight years of right-wing policies, realign Warsaw with its Western partners, and bring Poland back into the happy fold of the European family.
There are at least five reasons why these expectations are overblown, naïve, or simply wrong.
