Seldom has a new year commenced with such deep foreboding as 2024. Both the geopolitical and domestic outlook appear distinctly unfavourable. Predicting how much worse the situation could become as the year advances could, however, be hazardous.
The war in Ukraine, while stalemated at present, is set to enter a new phase. Since neither side appears ready for peace talks or negotiations, the danger is that one side or the other might be tempted to escalate matters in their favour by resorting to still more dangerous weapons available in their armoury, not excluding nuclear. It is obvious that neither Russia nor Ukraine (plus the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) can afford to be seen as having been forced to retreat — for if Russia is compelled to step back, not only would it mean the humbling of Russia per se but it would also signal a major victory for the West. If, on the other hand, Ukraine (plus NATO) is compelled to accept peace on Russia’s terms, it would comprehensively alter the politics of Europe. Key questions would thereafter arise about the very utility of NATO as a bulwark against aggression.
