The xG Premier League table that puts West Ham above…

The xG Premier League table that puts West Ham above Manchester United, Chelsea, Fulham and more

West Ham United are performing well below their predicted points score according to xG, despite their recent victory over Wolves.

According to expected goals data, West Ham, who lie in 15th place with seven points, are actually 3.74 points worse off than expected.
With five goals scored and nine conceded in eight games, the Hammers are well below where they would like to be.

But the “expected points” Premier League table would actually suggest they are picking up worse results than their performances deserve. West Ham are the most underperforming side in the league, with their seven points in eight games well below the 10.74 expectation.

For example, in their 1-0 defeat to Everton, West Ham’s xG of 0.66 was actually better than their opponents, who managed 0.40, suggesting West Ham should have picked up at least a draw based on the quality of chances created. A league based on xG score lines would put West Ham in 8th place.

Elsewhere in the league, Fulham are the biggest overperformers, with 11 points from eight games - more than four better than their 6.96 point prediction according to xG. Bournemouth are also doing better than expected, with nine points, 3.86 better than the 5.14 points expected of them. They would actually be at the bottom of the table according to the xG formula.

Leaders Arsenal are another side outperforming expectations on 21 points, having been expected to pick up 17.26, an overperformance of 3.74. Manchester United, who lie in sixth place with 12 points, are actually 2.66 points better off than expected.

Manchester City top the expected points table, with a predicted 20.71 points closely matching their real tally of 20, which shows their performances have matched their impressive results. Liverpool are a side underachieving, with 10 points from seven games, having been expected to pick up 12.81.

Chelsea are doing better than expected, with 13 points, 3.64 above their expected tally of 9.36. Tottenham are also above expectations, picking up 17 points so far while expected to be on 13.88, a gain of 3.12.

Another side with worse results than expected are Nottingham Forest. Bottom of the genuine Premier League table, on four points, Forest are actually expected to be on a far more respectable 7.48 points, which would put them above the bottom three.

Premier League table based on xG predictions:

xG Pos	Team	Actual Points	xPoints
1	Manchester City	20	20.71
2	Arsenal	21	17.26
3	Brighton	14	14.12
4	Tottenham Hotspur	17	13.88
5	Newcastle United	11	13.33
6	Liverpool	10	12.81
7	Brentford	10	12.37
8	West Ham United	7	10.74
9	Aston Villa	8	10.24
10	Chelsea	13	9.36
11	Manchester United	12	9.34
12	Southampton	7	9.29
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	6	9.17
14	Leeds United	9	8.83
15	Everton	10	8.82
16	Nottingham Forest	4	7.48
17	Fulham	11	6.96
18	Crystal Palace	6	6.78
19	Leicester City	4	6.62
20	Bournemouth	9	5.14

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