According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE)’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey, employment in India fell from 408.9 million in 2019-20 to 387.2 million in 2020-21 and then recovered to 401.8 million in 2021-22.
Evidently, the recovery in 2021-22 was inadequate. Employment was still 1.7%, or 7 million short of the employment level of the pre-pandemic year of 2019-20. But this overstates the impact of the pandemic. Employment was on a declining trend even before the pandemic: it was falling at the rate of about 0.31% per annum. If that trend had continued uninterrupted by the pandemic, employment would have fallen by about 2.5 million from 408.9 million in 2019-20 to 406.3 million in 2021-22. And so, the hit to employment that can be attributed to the shock of the pandemic is about 4.5 million jobs.
This loss of 4.5 million jobs because of the pandemic is the more lasting net impact. The immediate impact was much bigger. Nearly 78 million jobs were lost during the quarter of June 2020, which roughly coincides with the first wave of COVID-19. Similarly, 13 million jobs were lost during the second wave during the quarter of June 2021. Most jobs lost during lockdowns or other mobility restrictions are of the informal kinds. These come back when the restrictions on mobility are lifted.
