Tammy Baldwin faces a race in November that will test the rural-urban coalition the Democratic Wisconsin senator has built and help determine whether Democrats will be able to hold onto their narrow majority in the US senate.
Baldwin faces Eric Hovde, a real estate mogul and banker, who has campaigned on popular Republican issues like immigration and the economy, while linking Baldwin to Joe Biden.
Baldwin, who was first elected in 2012 on a tide of progressive support, is one of 23 Democratic US senators up for re-election this year; her ability to keep the support of voters in purple and red districts could determine the outcome of the critical race.
Baldwin has maintained relationships and a support base among farmers and rural voters, even as Democratic attrition from rural parts of the state has eroded Democratic margins in other statewide races. It’s a trend so persistent that “Trump-Tammy” voters are recognized as a constituency in Badwin’s base – with the senator winning 17 counties in her 2018 election that Trump won in 2016.
“That’s definitely Tammy’s bread and butter right there,” said campaign spokesperson Jackie Rosa, of Baldwin’s rural supporters.
On the campaign trail, Baldwin has made stops at farms and in rural areas, launching a “Rural Leaders for Tammy” coalition to make her case in areas of the state that tend to lean red. Issues like healthcare access and hospital deserts and subsidies for farmers form core aspects of her platform. She has highlighted populist-leaning bills, like one she drafted with JD Vance, the Republican senator and vice-presidential candidate, to require goods and services developed with federal dollars in the US to be manufactured in the US. She has even taken up issues that are less popular with liberals, like removing gray wolves from Wisconsin’s endangered species list – a move supported by some farmers but criticized by environmental and conservation groups.
“She never shied away from going out into the countryside,” said Hans Breitenmoser, a dairy farmer from northern Wisconsin and a member of the Lincoln county Democratic party. “I think her message has resonated to an extent, because, you know, it’s not just all BS – she tries to understand the issues, and understands the issues at a level that some other politicians don’t.”
For Hovde to win the seat, he will have to erode that support and hope for high turnout outside heavily Democratic areas like Milwaukee and Dane county, which have generated historic voter turnout in recent elections.
Polling so far shows a close race, with Baldwin holding an approximately seven-point lead over Hovde, according to a poll conducted at the end of July by the Marquette University Law School. An earlier poll, conducted in June – before Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race – showed Hovde trailing Baldwin more closely.
Hovde, whose campaign did not agree to an interview, is something of a blank slate. On his website, he highlights a few key issues – among them, immigration, foreign policy and healthcare – but does not specify policy solutions he supports. He has earned Trump’s endorsement – a possible boost for the businessman – but has not held public office, and will need to overcome accusations from the Baldwin campaign of carpetbagging. That could be challenging.
Although Hovde grew up in Madison and maintains numerous real estate properties there, the Baldwin campaign has cast him as an out-of-touch rich guy, pointing to his mansion in Laguna Beach, California – and his status in years past as one of Orange county’s most influential businessmen – as evidence of his position as an outsider.
Baldwin has focused much of her campaign messaging on the fact that with a net worth of more than $195m, Hovde would be among the wealthiest members of the Senate if elected.
In recent political ads, Hovde has highlighted his diagnosis of multiple sclerosis and the numerous international charities he operates to offer a more personal side and present his wealth as a political asset.
But he handles the topic of his finances sometimes uncomfortably. In numerous talk radio interviews, Hovde, who has slammed the Democrats for persistently inflated consumer prices, acknowledged that inflation could be good for a wealthy businessman like himself.
“Look – inflation helps in the short to medium term, people who own assets – I’ve benefitted, because my real estate values go up, my equity portfolio goes up, the value of my private companies go up,” said Hovde in 2021, during a Wisconsin talk radio show hosted by Vicki McKenna, a popular rightwing radio personality. “But it hammers people who have a set salary, or lower-income people.”
On an episode of a rightwing podcast called The Truth with Lisa Boothe in March, he echoed a similar sentiment, decrying the rise of inflation and its impact on the middle class before noting that he himself had somewhat enjoyed the period of inflation. “For those that own assets, you know, I benefit because I own real estate and stocks and companies. So, yeah, it makes me wealthier, but it’s hammering, you know, 90% of Americans,” said Hovde.
According to his most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Hovde has loaned $13m to his campaign, which has raised about $16m in total so far. Baldwin’s campaign had raised $27m by the end of the most recent FEC reporting period.
Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race, with Kamala Harris ascending to the top of the ballot, likely offered Baldwin a boost in the tight race.
Baldwin, who did not join calls for Biden to drop out of the race, nonetheless refrained from campaigning with Biden when he made stops in Wisconsin. Hovde seized on Biden’s unpopularity and flailing campaign to cast Baldwin as a close Biden ally, even suggesting she had played a part in a Democratic party conspiracy to hide Biden’s age from voters.
“Just how long has Tammy Baldwin been involved in the Biden coverup?” asked one ad that ran in July.
The impact of the shakeup at the top of the Democratic party ticket in July also quickly led to a deluge of funding for Democrats, including in Wisconsin.
“Every single thing that I can measure is going up,” Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic party, told Wisconsin Public Radio on 19 August. “Fundraising has shot up, hundreds of thousands of dollars came in the 48 hours after that big decision, and the contributions have not stopped.” Rosa, the Baldwin campaign spokesperson, noted that after the vice-president announced her presidential bid, she had seen a “noticeable difference” in terms of enthusiasm and crowd sizes at Baldwin’s events.
“But we’re always just really focused on our race,” said Rosa. “Of course, supporting up and down the ballot, Democrats getting across the finish line. Because Wisconsin is going to determine the White House – we’re going to determine the Senate majority.”
