The Winds of Winter Release Date Odds: Manifold Prediction Market Traders Put 2030 Book Odds at 48 Percent

A prediction market tracking the potential release of George R. R. Martin’s The Winds of Winter has gained fresh attention after traders raised the odds of the long-awaited A Song of Ice and Fire novel being published by the end of 2030. (Credit: Sanna Pudas, CC BY 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons)

A prediction market tracking the possible release of George R. R. Martin's The Winds of Winter has drawn renewed attention after traders increased the odds of the long-awaited A Song of Ice and Fire novel being released by the end of 2030. On September 25, 2026, traders on Manifold Markets placed the probability of the book's release by December 31, 2030, at 48%, according to the platform's market data.

The increase did not follow a confirmed release date, manuscript announcement or publisher update. Instead, interest appeared to rise after renewed discussion surrounding fantasy author Brandon Sanderson's comments defending Martin over the lengthy development process of the next instalment in the series.