Ukraine and its western allies are losing ground in the war against Russia. A possible Russian victory will be costly and is likely to be followed by years of exhausting low-intensity conflict while the country remains ostracised from the western economic system.
So, all parties fighting in Ukraine need badly a diplomatic solution. The meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska has reopened this possibility. Yet many in the west remain wary that a viable solution can be reached. What motivates this scepticism? An important reason is that many western leaders simply don’t trust the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. They believe that whatever agreement is reached to end the fighting in Ukraine, Putin will breach it when this suits his interests.
Many western analysts fear that stopping the fight in Ukraine will allow Russia to replenish its offensive capabilities to be better placed to relaunch an attack soon. Meanwhile, many reason that continuing the war will weaken Russia while giving European countries the time to rearm, boosting their deterrent power and – in the eventuality that Russia launches attacks on other European countries – allowing Europe to react energetically.
