The buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine's border has led to fears of a new war. But the conflict is hardly new, and nor are Russia's objectives. Ukraine, which has been indirectly controlled or directly repressed by Moscow-based governments for centuries, wants Nato to protect it from future Russian incursions, like the one the Kremlin launched in 2014. But Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding that Nato promise not to expand into any more Eastern European countries that border Russia (which already shares a border with five Nato members).
Nato, led by the US, is refusing Mr Putin's demand on the grounds that all countries have a right to decide their own fates. But protecting Ukraine's independence is not as straightforward as it seems. There is an asymmetry between the cost that Russia is willing to pay to control Ukraine and the cost that Nato countries are willing to pay to protect it from Russian suzerainty.
Russia has few allies, whereas Nato comprises 30 of the world's richest countries, many of which have modernised militaries. Nonetheless, over the past 200 years, Russia has managed to use small neighbouring countries as a buffer against Western European countries that might threaten it. Mr Putin views today's geopolitical landscape in much the same way. He worries that, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's western buffer has been reduced to Belarus. Keeping Ukraine within the Kremlin's sphere of influence is thus critical for his strategy of ensuring Russia's national security and boosting its geopolitical standing.
