The latest polls suggest that support for the Conservative Party is imploding in Wales with many of the party's MPs on course to lose their seats. According to a poll by YouGov, the Labour party has surged to a 33-point lead over the Conservative party, which is the largest lead any party has obtained since the late 1990s.
The latest YouGov and Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday (September 26). The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points.
Other polls also show record leads for the Labour Party. People Polling put Labour on 50% and the Tories on 20%, Techne put Labour on 47% and the Tories on 27%, Delta put Labour on 48% and the Tories on 29%, and Survation put Labour on 49% and the Tories on 28%.
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This comes in the wake of the mini-Budget chaos, which unveiled sweeping unfunded tax cuts that Labour has said would "reward the already wealthy" and not boost economic growth. Wales' First Minister, Mark Drakeford, has also heavily criticised the mini-Budget, which was unveiled last Friday (September 23), branding it "authentically shocking" and also a "giant experiment" that will leave families worse off in the future.
In Election Map UK's latest analysis, which brings together all of the latest polls, it is projected that the Welsh Conservatives would lose seats in some of their most loyal areas if a General Election was held today. Nine out of 14 Tory MPs would lose their seats in Wales, according to the interactive map. Across the UK, Labour would gain 296 seats and the Conservatives lose 304 seats to fall to just 61 MPs.
It's important to remember that this is the middle ground of all of the latest polls. If YouGov's poll giving Labour a 30% lead is projected across the UK, then the Tories would be on course to lose 12 seats with only Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire remaining blue.
Based on the analysis of all of the polls, the majority of blue constituencies, such as Clwyd South, Vale of Glamorgan and Preseli Pembrokeshire would turn red, with Labour taking back places such as Wrexham and Bridgend.
At the last election in December 2019, Virginia Crosbie MP won by a majority of 1,968 votes, marking a historic Conservative gain in the constituency of Ynys Mon, which had been a Labour seat since the general election in 2001. However, latest polls predicted that the MP, originally from Essex, would lose her seat to Plaid Cymru.
Plaid would win with a predicted majority of 2,057, receiving 37.5% of the vote - a +9% increase from the last election, while Labour would come in second with 31.9%, and Conservatives in third with 23.8% - a -11.7% decrease from the previous election. The last time Plaid won the seat was in 1987's election, when former party leader Ieuan Wyn Jones won.
The constituencies of Aberconwy, Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South and Delyn, alongside Wrexham, would also all change from blue to red in the north of the country. This would mean that Robin Millar, James Davies, Rob Roberts, Simon Baynes and Sarah Atherton would all lose their seats.
Of these constituencies, the biggest Labour swing would be in Delyn, with a +4.9% increase from 2019's vote. The biggest decrease for the Tory party in the north would be in Aberconwy with -13.0% for Robin Millar.
In south west Wales, Stephen Crabb MP would lose his seat in the Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency to Labour. Conservatives would get 37.1% of the vote - slipping -13.3% from its win in 2019, while Labour would win with 41.4% - an increase of +2.9%.
Meanwhile, Jamie Wallis MP would lose their seat in Bridgend constituency, with a predicted majority of 5,679 votes to Labour. The Conservative party would get 31.5% of the vote, which is a -11.6% decrease from the last general election, but a +4.6% increase for the Labour party with 44.9% of the vote.
Historically a Tory stronghold, the Vale of Glamorgan would also turn red. Labour would make a gain in this constituency with 46.8% of the vote, making it a +3.5% increase since its last election, while Conservatives would get 37.0% of the vote - a -12.8% decrease. This projection would indicate that former Welsh Secretary, Alun Cairns, would lose his seat.
Meanwhile, it is predicted that Clwyd West, Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire, Monmouth and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire would remain Conservative, meaning David Jones, Craig Williams, Fay Jones, David Davies and Simon Hart would hold onto their seats. The Tory vote in Montgomeryshire would decrease by -12.2% from 2019's general election, and -12.9% in Monmouth.
Clwyd West and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire would see a 14.0% fall in the Conservative vote in the vote from 2019 in both constituencies. However, former Welsh Secretary Simon Hart MP of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire would narrowly cling on to his seat with 38.7% of the vote, while Labour would come in second with 37.2%. Similarly David Jones in Clwyd West would be neck and neck with Labour but narrowly win with 36.7% of the vote to 36.6%.
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