Talking Points
- 40 countries signed a pledge to hasten the end of coal
- South Africa's ruling ANC suffered its worst poll result in decades
- Western Australian police rescued 4-year-old Cleo Smith
- Daily Covid infections hit an all-time high in Germany
- Republicans won in Virginia, Democrats in New Jersey
- The high-profile Rittenhouse and Arbery trials opened
- The US Federal Reserve began to "taper" its pandemic relief
- Facebook killed off its facial recognition functionality
- Yahoo withdrew from China amid the tech crackdown
- A sexual assault allegation shook Beijing's inner sanctum
Dive deeper
Wednesday marked the first anniversary of Ethiopia's civil war. Given the sparse reporting of the Tigray War, the casual observer would be forgiven for assuming things had quietened down. This last week has revealed the opposite: the Tigrayans are advancing on the capital.
The bellicose laureate
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rise in 2018 was truly something to behold. It carried far more historical weight than we – or he – realised. It is worth, ever so briefly, tracing why. In 1974, a military junta called the Derg overthrew the imperial government of Emperor Haile Selassie. This marked the start of a dark period, notable for shocking famine and regular violence. 17 years later, the head of state (Mengistu Haile Mariam) was ousted in 1991 by a group known as the EPRDF (the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front). That rebel front was stitched together from the constellation of Ethiopia's ethnic groups, but it was largely under the sway of the northern Tigrayans. While the world's eyes were focused on the collapsing Soviet Union, an autocrat was getting the boot from the Horn of Africa. The problem was that the EPRDF wasn't much better. Over the next 27 years the country's one-party rule resulted in fruitless but bitter wars with its erstwhile possession Eritrea, and even more famine.
2016, like 1991, was another momentous year for the troubled nation. The EPRDF, having long sidelined other ethnic groups, was by now a Tigrayan operation. But w idespread discontent bubbled to the surface across Ethiopia. And the writing was on the wall. It was also around this time that vast amounts of military hardware started to go missing. When Abiy won office in 2018, the first Oromo in decades to do so, he inherited a fractured, dangerous country. At first, he appeared to be exactly what Ethiopia needed. He halted the festering conflict with Eritrea – and won a Nobel Peace Prize for it. He also made moderate moves to expand civil rights. But the heart of Abiy's promise was that he would help the country overcome the deep divisions of ethnic federalism and construct a post-ethnic state.
That dream was short-lived. Within months, ethnic conflicts were once again on the rise. Oromo against Somali. Gumuz against Amhara. Amhara against just about everyone else. Oromo and Amhara nationalist movements also started stirring up trouble. Assassinations and regional power plays became a common feature. In 2020, Abiy's government opted to postpone the federal election for a year due to Covid. But Tigray's ruling party, the TPLF, went ahead with their own election anyway. Tensions between Addis Ababa and the Tigrayan capital Mekelle soared. On the 3rd of November last year TPLF fighters attacked government border outposts. Within a month the Ethiopian army had swept into Tigray, seized Mekelle, and declared victory.
The road to Addis Ababa
Weeks passed. Then months. Reports suggested that fighting continued up in the highlands. The occasional NGO decried extrajudicial killings and enforced famine in Tigray. But for the most part, Addis Ababa pulled a curtain down over the benighted region – internet access was cut off entirely . The blackout was highly effective. News that didn't get out that the TPLF had turned the highlands into a killing field. Or that the government was intentionally exacerbating a famine in Tigray. But in July this year, Abiy's reassurances evaporated when the TPLF swept back into Mekelle with no less than 6,000 prisoners of war. In doing so they disproved the old adage that an army marches on its stomach. Hunger did not stop the TPLF from marching into their capital, and it has not stopped them since .
On Wednesday, Abiy Ahmed commemorated the war with this Facebook post: "We will bury this enemy with our blood and our bones, and uplift Ethiopia's dignity". His bold statement rings hollow given what is really happening on the battlefield. The TPLF has pushed the government and its Amhara paramilitaries out of their home region and is now advancing towards the nation's capital. It is an eerie echo of 1991. With the seizure of Dessie and Kombolcha, the Tigrayans are more than halfway to Addis Ababa (a mere 400km away). A state of emergency has been declared, and Abiy is calling on other ethnic groups to help guard the capital. This is a dangerous proposition given his tenuous grip . The entire city is now at risk of collapsing into internecine bloodletting. One region he certainly won't be able to count on is his native Oromo – nationalists from his own region are believed to have linked up with the TPLF.
A United Nations report this week found "civilians in Tigray have been subjected to brutal violence and suffering". It went on to detail instances of mothers being gang raped in front of their children by government soldiers amid endemic torture. If the TPLF make it to Addis Ababa – or the Amhara capital of Bahir Dar – vengeance will be harsh.
Worldlywise
All systems Glasgow
Can an event be equal parts productive and divisive? Delegates from across our big blue world found out this week at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. The Australian and French leaders threatened to derail procedures with an unbecoming spat, while climate-vulnerable Pacific nations begged rich countries to be bolder with their targets. Fortunately, the sniping – including at China for failing to rock up – did not completely cloud the event. Pledges were made which, if implemented, could significantly reduce emissions. Although it must be noted that the word "if" shoulders a heavy load in the previous sentence.
More than 100 leaders have agreed to stop deforestation by 2030 . The reasoning is as sturdy as a redwood. Forests are carbon sinks; saving them offsets carbon, slashing and burning them releases CO2 back into the atmosphere. Even Brazil – which is cheerfully sawing and torching the Amazon – signed on. This feels a little ludicrous given that during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency the rate of land clearing has nearly doubled . Indigenous activists warned leaders and the public to not trust Bolsonaro’s “greenwashing” at COP26. Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer also signed up but almost immediately offered a different interpretation of the agreement: one which magics up an option to not actually stop deforestation by 2030. "The massive development of President Jokowi's era must not stop in the name of carbon emissions or in the name of deforestation," Indonesian Environment Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar wrote on Twitter. Great.
Two other headlines coming out of COP26 were an agreement to phase out coal , and one to curb emissions generated by methane by 30 per cent by 2030. The first was panned for omitting CO2 generated by fossil fuels, oil and gas. There's also not much to get excited about: coal is already on its deathbed. And major coal producers and burners US, India, China and Australia were conspicuously absent from this agreement. The second story, the methane deal, is imperfect but necessary nonetheless . The gas generated by open pit coal mines, gas leaks, and livestock is the second biggest contributor to global warming (behind CO2). It's also more than 80 times more potent than CO2. The same climate laggards (g'day Australia) skipped out on this pledge too.
All the chatter and duplicity aside: if countries implement the commitments made at COP26, the world can keep warming to 1.8°C above pre-industrialised levels . While the target to prevent catastrophic damage caused by climate change is 1.5°C, 1.8°C degrees of warming is far better than previous estimates of about 2.7°C. But rub is that none of the agreements are mandatory, so we are once again relying on blind good will.
Promises and secrets
The Booker Prize, the world's premier English-language literary accolade , was awarded to Damon Galgut for The Promise . The South African career author has been shortlisted twice, in 2003 and 2010. This year, his ninth novel took the chocolates. The Promise was described by Booker judge Maya Jasanoff as, "a penetrating and incredibly well-constructed account of a white South African family navigating the end of apartheid and its aftermath." It's exceptional praise for a novel which Galgut quipped was born of a "semi-drunken afternoon" with a friend. The novel tracks familial life with a fascinating aperture: four funerals. What's fascinating is that a book critics have described as a "tour de force" has sold fewer than 9,000 copies ! One of Galgut's comments, possibly self-effacing, or perhaps a sly dig at the Booker, was that this win was simply "a lottery".
On the other side of the Channel, a 31-year-old Senegalese prodigy has won France's most prestigious literary gong. Mohamed Mbougar Sarr is the first sub-Saharan African to win the Goncourt Prize. La plus secrète mémoire des hommes ('The most secret memory of men') is his fifth book and it dazzled the critics. A prominent Parisian literary figure was breathless in her praise, "It's at once a police investigation but also an investigation into genealogy, politics, aesthetics – as well as questions like, what does it mean to be a writer and to write? This is really a book critic's book." The head of the Goncourt Prize said he read it in one sitting. While Sarr will only take home a nominal €10 (compared to the Booker's £50,000) he is guaranteed several hundred thousand sales. More on France's ravenous reading community below...
The best of times
A war of words
There are few higher pleasures than losing an hour browsing the shelves of a bookshop. It's a feeling that the French try to safeguard from the encroachment of Amazon. Previous governments mandated a floor price regardless of whether a book is sold online or in store, and limited permissible discounting to just 5%. Amazon responded by reducing delivery fees to just €0.01 to undercut more expensive postage fees for bookshops. Not to be outdone, this week Paris introduced a minimum delivery fee. Sensible lawmaking on a subject of no small importance.
Kōtuku wades carefully
The assistant governor of New Zealand's central bank has sent financiers into a flap by introducing a new avian metaphor. In years gone by the monetary policy crowd have been limited to the binaries of hawks and doves. Enter the kōtuku , a white heron which treads a cautious path with great awareness before spreading its wings and taking flight. This sensible middle path is part of a wider project to elevate Māori culture in New Zealand's institutions.
The worst of times
The crime with no perpetrator
An investigation has found no wrongdoing in a chain of operational mistakes that led to a catastrophic air strike in Kabul in the final days of the Afghan War. The US Air Force inspector general said, " It's a regrettable mistake . It's an honest mistake". He was describing a drone assassination that killed 10 innocent members of the same family. Three adults and seven children were reduced to unrecognisable scraps with not one legal or procedural ramification.
Kabul hospital attack
In a similarly nauseating loss of life, ISIS fighters launched a deadly attack on Kabul's sprawling military hospital during the week. A suicide bomber detonated a device at the front entrance before four other assailants swept through the facility. Taliban special forces repulsed the attack but not before 19 patients and staff were killed, and another 50 wounded. The new rulers of Afghanistan are finding themselves far more exposed to their needling rivals than before.
Weekend Reading
The image
The quote
" Sumomomomomomomomo. "
– A particularly mischievous Japanese horse owner named their filly "plums and peaches are both peaches" which is a repetitious mouthful . The three-year-old horse delighted crowds with a win at Tokyo's Oi racecourse. Callers are no doubt hoping for a short career.
The numbers
7,000 unwanted homes
- The online property marketplace Zillow is used by buyers, sellers, renters, and day-dreamers all across America. It has been a roaring success. But in 2018 the real estate app decided to move from digital to physical. By leveraging its deep data set on housing stock, prices, and consumer behaviour, Zillow argued it could start flipping houses itself. Fast forward three years and this vertical integration play – part of the iBuying craze – turned out to be a bust. Zillow has lost $300m in a matter of months, fired 2,000 staff and is busily trying to offload thousands of properties.
500,000 deaths
- The World Health Organisation warned this week that Europe could suffer half a million more deaths with yet another coronavirus wave sweeping across the continent. A WHO director intoned that, "We are at another critical point of pandemic resurgence. Europe is back at the epicentre of the pandemic, where we were one year ago." An even more transmissible Delta variant is pushing up cases.
The headlines
"'FBI floats a working theory on the 'jet pack man' flying above LA" – Los Angeles Times
"Lady Gaga suffers 'psychological difficulty' after staying in character for nine months"
– The Telegraph . All artists suffer for their art (Italian accents).
The special mention
This week the judging panel was unanimous and swift in selecting Sepp Blatter and Michel Platini. The two ageing clown princes of European football were indicted in Switzerland on charges of fraud, misappropriation, criminal mismanagement, and document forgery. The disgraced former presidents of FIFA and UEFA turned the corporate architecture of the world game into their personal fiefdoms. It was tiki taka with bribes instead of a ball. Feel free to cheer this long overdue comeuppance.
A few choice long-reads
- The Economist pins Joe Biden's flailing fortunes on his own party's left wing.
- The Atlantic delivers a fantastic article (and podcast!) on the secret to finding meaningful work.
- Bloomberg Businessweek gives us an absolutely wild piece on Papa Johns. Do not miss it.
Tom Wharton @trwinwriting
