Talking Points
- Growing coronavirus fears emptied schools around the world
- A global slow-down prompted central banks to slash interest rates
- Israel headed for its 4th election after Netanyahu's minority win
- Ebola eradication in Congo neared as the last patient was discharged
- The Taliban resumed fighting ahead of its annual spring offensive
- The ICC green-lit probes into US war crimes in Afghanistan
- Iconic GE leader Jack Welch died aged 84
- Scientists showed that climate change worsened Australia's bushfires
- A report outlined that 50% of our beaches may disappear by 2100
- A UK court found that Dubai's ruler abducted his own children
Deep Dive
Super Tuesday is done. And so are Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren. America's Democrats must now choose behind an establishment candidate, and a socialist. Anyone else feel like we're watching a re-run of the 2016 season?
Just the two of us
What a difference a fortnight makes. Joseph R. Biden has stormed into lead position in the Democratic primary with a series of upset wins on Super Tuesday. Carrying momentum from a strong victory in South Carolina, the former Vice President swept through a majority of states on the biggest day of the primary calendar. It has been a remarkable turnaround for Biden. He was thought to be a shoe-in for the nomination as recently as December, but then suffered a total collapse in support through the early primaries. Of course, having the remaining establishment Democratic candidates evacuate the field also helped. In the days leading up to to Super Tuesday Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar heeded their pollsters' advice ("drop out") and the party's ("endorse Biden").
And with the leg-up, Biden took all the states in the south that he had expected to win, plus a handful of toss-ups , and shockingly, even a few in the north-east that were already written in for Sanders. It was a disappointing night for the insurgent democratic socialist who had dominated the opening caucuses and primaries. And yet, as the dust is settling, the race remains close. The senator from Vermont won a commanding lead in California (with its 40 million souls and 400+ delegates). And so the two septuagenarians are locked in an old-fashioned two-horse race to try and capture the majority of delegates – a state-by-state war of attrition.
On the other end of the spectrum from Biden was Michael Bloomberg. He had an absolutely atrocious night, winning just a handful of delegates and not a single state. There are apparently some shortcomings that even a half-billion-dollar advertising budget can't mask. The billionaire's dalliance has ended. But he wasn't the only post-Tuesday drop-out...
What will it take for America to elect a woman?
Elizabeth Warren has bowed out, also having won only a handful of delegates and, humiliatingly, finished third in her own state of Massachusetts. There are many, many explanations for why she lost. She ran in the left-lane for too long but failed to siphon enough of Sanders' support base. Too late she swerved to the centre, only to find it bumper-to-bumper with other candidates. Her front-runner status, and half-endorsement from the New York Times, failed to translate into a nation-wide movement. Voters were put off by her fake-indigenous-heritage fiasco. She was a Republican for most of her life. In early debates better orators ran roughshod over her. She was skittish on policy, flip-flopping over her healthcare plan – the single most-galvanising issue of the election. All these explanations are plausible. But there's one more that cannot be denied. She was held to a different standard than her male competitors.
Warren is a highly competent politician, a trusted progressive figure , and a policy expert. But beneath all the party calculus and personal pitfalls lies a simple truth. Americans can't seem to elect a woman to the White House because a large swathe of the country either doesn't want to be led by a woman, or does not consider one capable of the job. These attitudes are explicit manifestations of a sexism that is deeply imbued in America's political system. To wit: women make up only a small fraction of all candidates for office. Those who beat the odds and make it to Capitol Hill find themselves in a similar minority (fewer than one in four Congress members is a woman). They sponsor fewer bills. They receive less air-time, thanks to the implicit biases of the media. And if one of these women does run for high office, she faces a bizarre catch-22. If she conforms to retrograde gender stereotypes she is viewed as warm, but lacking competence. And if she cuts across those views and displays her assertiveness, she is described as competent - but cold and unrelatable. Both Elizabeth Warren and Hillary Clinton learned the bitter truth - that in a male-dominated society there is a pre-loaded critique for just about any formulation of a woman's public persona.
America now has four years to meditate on this. Or not.
Worldlywise
A butterfly flaps its wings...
A Syrian (or Russian airstrike) that killed 33 Turkish troops in Idlib province has threatened to trigger another refugee crisis in Europe. Following the attack, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opened Turkey’s borders with Bulgaria and Greece, clearing a path into Europe for refugees. He won’t close the borders without EU and NATO support for Turkey’s intervention in Syria.
Turkey is home to four million refugees, mostly Syrian, who are recognised under the EU-Turkey Statement of 2016. The agreement was a pay-off: the EU forked out €6 billion so that Turkey would stop letting refugees into Europe. But the EU’s salve has now turned into a sore. There is still no bloc-wide refugee plan, and Erdoğan is holding the chips in a looming crisis.
But this recent flare up isn’t about Syrian refugees, at least not directly. The 130,000 refugees and migrants on the Greece-Turkey border are mostly Afghans, Iraqis and Iranians. Critics say Erdoğan is using them as pawns, to gain support for a battle in Syria that he can't otherwise win. Turkey for its part fears that if Bashar al-Assad’s regime takes back Idlib, that will unleash another influx of refugees. And so Erdoğan's troops are herding the hapless refugees into Greece , where border clashes have already killed at least one.
As for the EU, it is simultaneously committed to allaying another influx of refugees, and to preventing continued conflict in Idlib. Russia and Turkey agreed to a ceasefire in Idlib on Thursday night. Though the situation along Turkey’s border promises to escalate. There are troops on both sides. And many innocent bodies in the middle that are being foisted from one over-burdened and under-resourced country to another.
Green deal or greenwash?
The European Union’s €1 trillion Green Deal was introduced this week. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the EU’s ambitious climate law on Wednesday, a cornerstone of the Green Deal that promises bloc-wide carbon neutrality by 2050. It will regulate industry, transport and housing; and provide a “just transition mechanism” to support coal-producing nations like Poland and Hungary. Crucially, the law will make it binding for all 27 bloc-members to aid decarbonisation. And for the European Commission to factor climate goals into all new legislation.
But von der Leyen and the EC face pressure on a nearer target: the 2030 goal. Previously, the emissions-reduction target was set at 40% against 1990-levels. The EU has reduced emissions by 23% between 1990 and 2018. Now Von der Leyen has pledged to raise the target to 50% or 55%. How will Europe get there? We won’t know until September, which is when the EC will provide a roadmap for the 50% reduction. But seven months seems an awfully long wait in a crisis, especially given that Europe has just had its hottest winter on record . Leaders across the EU have called out the delay, with France, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden, demanding that the 2030 emissions-reduction roadmap be released now.
One of the perils of popularising environmentalism is the risk of 'greenwashing' - dissembling to convey an environment impact that doesn't exist. And that is exactly the charge that many prominent figures, including former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis and activist Greta Thunberg, have levelled against the Green Deal. Thunberg denounced the latest bill as “empty words”. She is part of a growing voice of concern across the continent, 93% of Europeans see global warming as a serious problem. The Green Deal parades a continent collectively taking action against climate change, and sets an example that the world may follow. Whether it will address the planet's immediate needs remains to be seen.
The Best of Times
Something to celebrate on IWD
South American societies have long been guided by the firm hand of Roman Catholicism (a particularly puritanical brand left behind by Iberian conquerors). As such, many of its countries have lagged well behind the rest of the world in the realisation of womens' rights, particularly on the issue of abortion. At last, some good news: Argentina is set to become the first major country south of the Panama Canal to decriminalise and legalise the procedure.
Resistance is futile
In the arms-race against super-antibiotic-resistant bacteria, humans may have just gotten an edge. The AI-assisted discovery of halicin (a compound named for the all-knowing computer villain of 2001: A Space Odyssey ) has evoked great relief. Preliminary tests have shown total effectiveness in killing off even the hardiest bacterium.
The Worst of Times
Cybidium kanran
Orchids occupy a privileged, spiritual position in the history of China's Han culture. Ethnobotanists have done much work in recent years to reveal the deep cultural importance of such plant species. But these glorious orchids are disappearing . Habitat loss to sprawl and farmland, the inexorable march of climate change, and over-harvesting have all pushed China's flower to the brink.
Myopia, Youropia, Ouropia
Currently 30% of the world's population has some degree of short-sightedness. That's expected to soar to 60% by mid-century. And yes, your phone is almost entirely to blame. So once you've finished this edition of the Wrap, please give your eyes a rest. They've earned a long unfixed gaze out a window. Or better yet take an actual trip outside to look at a bird in a tree (or at some orchids, while they last).
Weekend Reading
Quote of the week
"We are family now, bonded by blood and by loss."
– A family that formed in the aftermath of the 737-MAX Ethiopian Airlines disaster. This is definitely worth your time.
Headline of the week
''Google and Facebook will bring in more ad revenue than TV this year" – Input . The future is here and it's not great.
Special mention
Parrots, again . A new study has revealed that some parrots (like the brilliant Kea of New Zealand) weigh up the probability of outcomes before taking actions. This is the first time such behaviour – a sure sign of intelligence – has been observed outside of humans and other great apes.
Some choice long-reads
- Businessweek visits the dairy farm of your imagination
- The Outline interviews a hand-washing expert
- Foreign Affairs finds that coronavirus threatens national security
Tom Wharton
