Talking points
- Britain's election campaign began on the day it was due to leave the EU
- 300 million people were found to be at risk of rising sea levels by 2050
- Lebanon's government fell as a result of widespread protests
- Trump's impeachment inquiry became a near-certainty
- Scientists located the cradle of our species in a lakebed in Botswana
- Halloween offered Hong Kong protesters an excuse to wear masks
- Fashion giant LVMH made an unsolicited bid for Tiffany & Co
- The U.S. House voted to recognise the Armenian genocide
- Fugitive financier Jho Low handed $1b over to the 1MDB probe
- Kashmir was split in two and its autonomy formally extinguished
Deep Dive
A lot of airtime, and air, was sucked up by three devastating fires this week. Each was distinct in scope, toll and response. In this Deep Dive we'll tread the charred forecourt of a god-like castle in Okinawa, count the dead on a doomed Pakistani train journey and try to get a sense of the monstrous fires in California.
A castle laid low
Around 590 years ago, the Ryukyu island kingdom selected an ideal site for its new administrative capital. At the southern tip of what is now known as Okinawa, the rulers found a hilltop that not only offered defensibility, but also a stunning panorama of hills, plains and the sea. They erected a gesuku ('castle') of stone walls and wooden structures that would become the axle around which the far-flung kingdom revolved. The Shurijo, or Shuri Castle , survived conquest by the northern islander Japanese, the arrival of Commodore Perry's black ships*, and the neglect of a modernising nation. It did not survive American naval artillery during the Second World War – the castle was entirely rebuilt in the second half of the last century. Now, it lies in smouldering ruins once again, its majestic wooden halls reduced to ash by an overnight inferno.
The first emergency alarm was triggered at 2:30am, yet despite the best efforts of over 100 firefighters the structure continued to burn for nearly 11 hours . The entire complex had recently received a fresh coat of lacquer to maintain its regal red exterior – it's believed that this abetted the flames that crept, then leapt, through the castle. Six buildings, including the magnificent seiden ('main hall'), totalling more than 4,200sqm, have simply ceased to exist. The residents of Naha, the Okinawan capital that Shuri Castle overlooks, are devastated. The local mayor has announced that no cost will be spared to rebuild the iconic castle once more. But it may be years , or even decades, before the decorative dragons soar again.
*For naval history buffs and those who delight in historical repetition, one of Perry's black ships that made port in Okinawa was the paddleboat frigate USS Mississippi, the first vessel to bear the name of that mighty river. The second USS Mississippi was a New Mexico-class battleship, the very one which flattened Shuri Castle over the course of three days in May, 1945.
A speeding inferno
Where the loss of Shuri Castle is primarily a cultural wound, the toll of the Pakistan train fire can be measured in life and limb. At least 74 people (note: these figures have a tendency to climb higher) have perished in a shocking train fire. The fire engulfed three entire carriages before the vehicle was brought to a halt – several people died as a result of injuries sustained while jumping from the moving train. A sickening choice: burn or jump. Early reports indicate that a portable cooking gas cylinder exploded while the train was in motion. Using such devices to cook food while in transit is strictly forbidden, but anyone who's taken such journeys on the subcontinent can tell you that an 18-hour trip makes for hungry commuters.
The train was from Pakistan's reliable Tezgam service, though it had been re-routed from the Karachi-Rawalpindi line in order to carry pilgrims to the Tablighi Ijtema festival outside Lahore. The annual gathering sees hundreds of thousands of devout worshippers gathering in a tent city to, in lay terms, become more Muslim. More specifically, it is a chance for people to return to the fundamentals of their faith. It is a time for cleansing, though this year's Ijtema has been indelibly marked with the absence of the 74 people who never arrived.
Fire in the North, fire in the South
California's wildfire season has started off in dramatic fashion. Conflagrations have ravaged vineyards in Sonoma and housing estates in Ventura County. SoCal was knocked back onto the ropes late in the week when a new front opened in the difficult terrain of San Bernardino National Forest. The weather bureau has issued 'extreme red flag' warnings, which is, as you can see from the photos , about as dire as it sounds. Fires also threatened the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library – but were thankfully thwarted by water bombers, and some hard-working goats.
The 2018 wildfire was California's deadliest and most destructive on record. 97 civilian lives were lost, as were those of six firefighters trying to defend them. Hard lessons were learned, and they've come in the form of intentional blackouts, as millions of Californians have gone without power for long stretches in October. The need for the blackouts is manifest: vulnerable geography, poor readiness, urbanisation, and climate change, all contributed to the televised incineration of Paradise last year. But the Camp Fire would not have ignited in the first place were it not for a power line felled by heavy winds. California has so drastically underspent on poles and wires that its infrastructure is, in many areas, not only redundant but also dangerous.
In the grand scheme of things a blackout may seem a small price to pay to avoid a wildfire, but the disruption wrought on businesses, farms, factories and public services in California has been palpable. Its famous vineyards have been unable to stabilise the temperatures of their vats. Likewise, farmers have been unable to use milking machines, or electric pumps. The cost of these fires is perhaps best measured not by cultural loss or death toll, but rather by the loss of psychological safety. A less predictable and more combustible environment is lashing at the very foundations of our economies.
Worldlywise
Prayer and fault a year on from Flight 610
This week Indonesians gathered to hold vigil on the first anniversary of the day when a Lion Air jet speared into the Java Sea, taking 189 passengers and crew to their graves.
It was, and is, a story that strikes fear in the hearts of travellers. An airplane is too-complex a piece of machinery for humans to fly it by themselves, but what happens when the computers turns against the pilots? Beyond the visceral fear that such events evoke, and despite the best efforts of many fine journalists, there has not been enough sustained interest in the Lion Air crash (or the Ethiopian disaster five months later). Perhaps the story has too many moving parts for individuals to grasp in a meaningful way. Indonesian authorities released their own investigative report on the crash last week. In it they laid out evidence of a complex trail of culpability stretching from Lion Air's repair crew all the way back to U.S. regulators. Only in a machine so complex – with its delicate instruments and web of software programs – could the finger of blame be so diffuse.
Had the correct reporting systems been in place, Lion Air staff may have grounded the 737 MAX and its malfunctioning MCAS anti-stall system. Had concerns about MCAS been heeded by Boeing's corporate hierarchy, the design flaw may have been caught and rectified. Had the software engineers done more work on assessing the potential risks of their new-fangled device, they surely would have closed that deadly loophole. Had the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration done its work before certifying the MCAS upgrade, it would have seen something was amiss. The chain goes on and on.
The Indonesian investigator this week said that if any one of nine links in the chain of mistakes and oversights had been prevented, the crash would most likely not have happened. But this is all just speculation. The crash did happen. And it wasn't the only one. Now is a time to pay attention, cut through the complexity, and learn how disasters are born .
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's life ends in a tunnel
Last weekend the founding 'caliph' of Islamic State met his long-delayed end in a tunnel below his residence in Idlib province, Syria. He was visited by death, in the form of American special forces, in the middle of the night. His death will not heal the wounds of a region upturned by his brutal regime. We are loathe to repeat too many of the particulars published about his death (a desperate and grovelling suicide, if we are to believe Donald Trump) simply because history has taught us that the narrative of events will most likely change over time. What we do know for certain is that his whereabouts were painstakingly pieced together in large part thanks to Kurdish fighters. Likewise, we know it's extremely unlikely that he had been living comfortably in Idlib, a province full of other jihadists and Turkish mercenaries, without anyone noticing.
Just as the operation to 'get' Osama bin Laden looks with every passing year more like an assassination that was enacted with the blessing of Pakistan's intelligence service, the al-Baghdadi raid thus far offers more questions than answers .
Meanwhile, despite the loss of its leader, IS believes its dream is still alive. The terrorist organisation promptly named one Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurashi as its new 'caliph'. Aside from a piecemeal rump comprising extremely remote hamlets and barren land, IS – for now – has been reduced to a non-entity.
In the years after 9/11, al-Qaeda was transformed from what was ostensibly a menacing global empire (remember the diagrams of hollowed-out mountain fortresses in Tora Bora?) to a loose grouping of affiliated terror groups, each with their own agendas and operations. The exact same thing is happening once again. Deprived of its impressive strategic gains in Syria and Iraq, IS has been exploded into its component pieces.
Splintered and weakened though it may be, IS remains dangerous . Its support and patronage networks still exist, not least because these are almost impossible to monitor and police. And anger over hostile, brutal and often excessive actions by the West is breeding a new generation of enemies.
The Best of Times
The 'miracle tree'
The fire-scarred Amazon is in need of a lifeline. And it may just get one, in the form of the inga tree . This extraordinary plant, also known as the ice cream bean tree, not only grows in poor and damaged soil, but actually makes it more fertile. The secret of this miraculous transformation is that inga trees fix life-giving nitrogen into the soil, locking it in place for other plants to thrive on. A project is now underway to encourage farmers to plant inga trees as commercial crops across the fire-damaged parts of the Brazilian rainforest. Fantastic.
A revolution is underway
It's got to do with reclaiming city streets from vehicle traffic. Read it and think about your own city's superblock future .
The Worst of Times
The past lives on
The simmering trade dispute between Japan and South Korea has been further complicated by yet another divisive cultural symbol: the rising sun flag. This striking design is instantly-identifiable as the standard of the Japanese Imperial Army. South Korea has demanded it be banned from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics , but Tokyo has firmly declined the request. It goes without saying that few in the region (particularly in China and Korea) would have warm memories associated with the approach of the rising sun flag.
Stop binge-watching Netflix
Weekend Reading
Quote of the week
"One danger I see among young people particularly on college campuses is that I do get a sense among certain young people, and this is accelerated by social media, that the way of me making change is to be as judgemental as possible about other people and that's enough... That is not activism, that is not bringing about change."
– Former U.S. President Barack Obama calls out 'call-out culture'. He's right that not much can be achieved by flinging insults at people over trivialities. On the other hand, there are good reasons why the college kids of today are clinging to ideological purity (and it's not just the vigour and clear-eyedness of youth). Perhaps what they're really doing is revolting against the underwhelming politics of compromise and incrementalism that Obama exemplified. Yes, being 'woke' is not enough to effect change – but apparently neither was being the most powerful person on earth. How long did America's involvement in the Paris Climate Agreement last?
Headline of the week
Russia's internyet: Kremlin readies test for its 'sovereign' firewall.
– Very classy work from The Independent .
Special mention
In pure bemusement, our special mention goes to the McDonald marketing guru who dreamed up the apparently-Halloween-themed tagline, 'Sundae Bloody Sundae' . If the thought of British paratroopers shooting dead 14 unarmed Northern Irish protesters doesn't make your mouth water for a spooky ice cream treat, what does? Genius.
Some choice long-reads
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Financial Times gets a dial on the Israeli WhatsApp hacking tools that have been sold to illiberal governments
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Businessweek breaks into a sweat keeping up with frantic lives of Brexit currency traders
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The Economist strikes black gold when digging into the Saudi Aramco IPO
Tom Wharton
