At a superficial level, the main event of this conference is the first public meeting between America's Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin. The focus is understandable considering the great power military brinksmanship being played out in Syria. That's not to mention Russian interference in last year's US presidential election or the current collusion investigation. Reporters have described a worrying (but unsurprising) facet of Trump's trip: he is
"remarkably unprepared" with
"no set agenda".
Back home Trump's supporters hoped for a renewed focus on protectionism; his detractors for a meaningful confrontation with Putin. But Trump spurned both groups in a speech delivered to a rapturous Warsaw crowd (that included many rural Trump supporters who had been bussed-in by the government). He finally affirmed his commitment to NATO's fifth article, the foundational collective-defence pact. But he also posited that
"nobody really knows for sure" who was behind the election hack, undercutting his own intelligence community who've stated otherwise in no uncertain terms.
In any case, the focus on individuals is misplaced because as defence guru
George Friedman wrote,
"the leaders ... think of themselves as decision-makers, when really they are hostages to history". Big egos and interpersonal conflicts make for great headlines and video but as we all know, the real action happens far from the galas and cameras.
So what is on the table? This week North Korea tested
its first full-fledged intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The launch sent a collective shiver around the world because the rocket has the potential to hit targets as far afield as Alaska or Darwin. In the memorably fiery words of the regime's spokespeople, the missile was a gift to the
"American bastards" on their independence day.
In response, America and South Korea demonstrated missile tests of their own. Later, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, rebuked Pyongyang and alluded to a
range of possible military reprisals. But in reality, Washington is left with few options beyond meaningful engagement with China and Russia. And already the American threats have
earned condemnation from Beijing and Moscow.
Geopolitics might steal the limelight, but the really big deal is the preliminary
free-trade agreement between Japan and the European Union. Japan's PM Shinzo Abe and EU President Donald Tusk announced their partnership on the eve of the conference: a 99% reduction in tariffs. The deal is not only colossal, it's also in sharp contrast to America's increasingly protectionist position.
To grasp America's shrinking status in the world, look no further than Tusk's pointed statement,
"We in the European Union firmly believe in the political purpose of a world which is built on openness, cooperation and trade. The world really doesn’t need to go 100 years back in time. Quite the opposite.”
Britain's Theresa May has already signalled that discussing climate change will not be a priority at the talks. In this she'll find support from Donald Trump and Australia's Malcolm Turnbull. Meanwhile, an iceberg the
size of the US state of Delaware is about to break off from Antarctica.