It is the economy. It’s always the economy. Even when it’s not the economy, it’s the economy that drives elections.
More than one-third of Americans say the economy is the country’s most important problem, according to Gallup Poll. With interest rates rising in hope of cooling generational-high inflation, high gasoline prices and home prices threatening to fall, what could the other two-thirds of Americans be more worried about?
Primarily, they’re worried about the government. That’s an economic problem, too. After all, many voters may be making their choices for leadership based upon the false premise that a single election can meet the financial challenges and fix economic forces years in the making.
Trust in government leadership is terrible. More than half of those surveyed by Gallup in September 2021 had not very much or no trust at all in public officeholders or people running for public office.
And the percentage of Americans expressing no confidence in newspapers, TV and radio news was at the highest level since Gallup began asking 50 years ago. Almost two-thirds don’t trust mass media to be fair.
So, we are worried about the economy, and we distrust the government making policies and the media reporting on it.
This is the environment voters confront in the week ahead with the midterm elections. And it is the atmosphere where consumers, companies and investors must make financial decisions.
There was more public trust in government during the depths of the Great Recession than there is today. Trust was cut in half in the 1970s as inflation rose and the economy stalled. To find a time when Americans’ confidence in their government was growing, one has to go back to the 1990s. As Pew Research Center noted, “As the economy grew in the late 1990s, so too did confidence in government.”
Refusing to concede a lost election, amplifying lies about voting, and perpetuating conspiracy theories designed to undermine trust in election results are counter-productive to a healthy economy and a dynamic investment climate.
A broadly growing economy, stable interest rates and low inflation fuel the public trust government must have to operate effectively. Those three ingredients are missing today. And they won't reappear after counting all the ballots this week.
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