More than 3,000 people are believed to have been killed across Iran so far, and the Pentagon says more than 15,000 targets in the country have been hit in the first two weeks. A girls’ school in the south-eastern Iranian city of Minab lies in rubble, with about 175 children and teachers killed in a strike that the US is believed to have carried out. The strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage turned chokepoint for the Gulf’s oil and the world, is, in effect, closed.
And the bill, according to analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is growing by roughly half a billion dollars every day.
A week after American and Israeli forces began their assault on Iran, and its repressive leadership, Pentagon officials told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing that the cost of the war had already exceeded $11.3bn in its first six days.
But that figure is only part of the story: sources familiar with the content of the briefing told the Guardian the estimate appeared largely limited to munitions expenditures and not the full cost of the opening days of the conflict, which could include forces deployed to the region, medical expenses, and the replacement of military aircraft lost in combat.
By day six, CSIS put the cumulative cost at $12.7bn. Today, it is likely to have exceeded $18bn – and the meter is still running.
The White House, which was approached for comment, did not provide a cost estimate of their own. The Pentagon and Centcom (US Central Command), who were both approached for comment, both suggested the Guardian contact the other agency.
The opening hours of the war were dominated by some of the most expensive weapons in the American arsenal. Those long-range missiles, ballistic missile interceptors and radar systems were consumed at a pace that has already drawn down stockpiles. The Pentagon has since transitioned to cheaper, shorter-range weapons, but the damage to US arsenal depth has been done.
Using cost analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, we analyze where America’s war dollars are going, in a war that was never declared in the first place.
CSIS reached their estimates by working backwards from the $11.3bn estimate the Pentagon gave to Congress. That estimate only included unbudgeted costs and didn’t include the cost of force buildup prior to the start of the war or the cost of repairing US infrastructure in the region. CSIS used FY 2026 Department of Defense (DoD) budget documents, DoD fact-sheets, Congressional Budget Office estimates of the costs of operating different military units, and statements from military officials to reach their own estimates. The cost categories do not add to the $12.7bn total due to rounding.
The true cost of the war and what the US is paying for is highly subject to the actual munitions used and other factors.
The cost of trade-offs came from nationalpriorities.org, which used Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and adjusted for the cost of benefits to calculate the equivalent salaries. The Guardian used BLS estimates for the number of people working in each profession to calculate what per cent of the workforce the first six days of the war in Iran would pay for.
