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At UFC 304, Leon Edwards expected to resume a certain fight. His rematch with Belal Muhammad was, in his mind, meant to be a continuation of their first meeting, which he was winning comfortably before accidentally poking Muhammad in the eye – leading to a No Contest. But on Saturday in Manchester, Edwards resumed the wrong fight.
Far from the slick striker he can be, this was a sluggish Edwards, the sluggish Edwards from a summer night in 2022, when the Jamaican-born Briton fought as if underwater, in an anxious dream, or both.
On that night, the welterweight title seemed destined to remain out of reach, to remain in the grasp of Kamaru Usman, who was relentlessly outwrestling Edwards for the second time in their careers. And then…
In one of the most shocking moments in UFC history, Edwards drilled his shin into the champion’s skull with one minute left on the clock, leaving Usman a hollow husk: physically in Salt Lake City but mentally not in the same postcode, state, country, or even on the same planet as Edwards.
On Saturday, Edwards again saw the welterweight title fading into the distance, but this time escaping his own grasp. And this time there were to be no last-gasp heroics. There almost were, when Edwards – after one of many takedowns by Muhammad and many minutes of control time by his challenger – rallied to secure top position. With less than a minute left on the clock, Edwards produced an onslaught of elbows to slice open Muhammad’s forehead, blood leaking down the champion-in-waiting’s startled face.
But this time, it was too late. If only Edwards had mustered such strikes in the third round, when he was first able to sufficiently counter Muhammad’s wrestling and control the Palestinian-American. In that moment, Edwards sought a submission, trying to find a way past Muhammad’s hands and to his neck – biding his time, though, ever the technician.
On Saturday, Edwards did not need to be a technician. He needed to be vicious. Muhammad is frequently criticised for his lack of finishing ability – a criticism often aimed at Edwards, too – but his pace, pressure and strength in grappling are so often the difference in his favour. The same was true on Saturday, but Muhammad picked his moments to be vicious, too, such as when he hauled Edwards off the mat then dumped him headfirst onto the canvas, almost piledriving the Briton.
One could suggest that criticism of Muhammad will be unjustified until it is justified. Under the guidance of UFC great Khabib Nurmagomedov, he has found a style that works for him, which has extended his win streak to 10 in five years, and which has fashioned a late prime at 36 years old; but eventually, as happens to almost every fighter in MMA (bar Khabib, ironically), Muhammad’s puzzle will be solved, and concerns over his footwork and dimensionality will be vindicated. But for now, praise takes priority.
By the same token, it is only now that there is any point in scrutinising Edwards’s skillset, albeit in a different way to how Muhammad did in Manchester. The Briton had won 12 fights in a row across nine years before Saturday, proving himself one of the most well-rounded and technically sharp fighters of his generation. So, worries about his ability to close out fights weren’t necessarily warranted – until at 6am on Sunday morning, they were.
It is not as if Edwards has never finished an opponent. Ask Usman about Edwards’s killer instinct. Ask Peter Sobotta, Abert Tumenov and Seth Baczynski. It is in there. But for a mixed martial artist who is intent on constantly evolving, the next evolutionary step is clear for Edwards: His timing has long been among the best in the game when it comes to technique; now he must finetune his timing when it comes to taking his opponents out.
Those finishes of Sobotta, Tumenov and Baczynski came in 2018, 2016 and 2015 respectively. Against Colby Covington in December, Edwards proved himself to be on another level to the former interim champion, but the finish never came. That is okay, but that Edwards never pushed for the finish? That might have been a sign of what must change.
He flirted with submission attempts on that occasion, as if he was in training and simply trying techniques for fun. That is a testament to how good Edwards can be under the bright lights. But what if he had sought those submissions a little more urgently, or employed his elbows earlier against Muhammad?
It is understandable that when Edwards is winning a fight, he is somewhat risk-averse, as he was against Covington. And when a fight is almost lost, Edwards can unleash himself, as he showed against Usman and Muhammad. But when a fight is in the balance, perhaps his safety-first approach must make way for something more daring.
