Victoria was dubbed the “Massachusetts of Australia” by former prime minister John Howard, following Labor’s landslide victory at the 2018 state election, due to its progressive bent.
Indeed, the Coalition holds just 15 of 38 seats in the state. Labor holds 21, and the Greens and an independent hold Melbourne and Indi respectively.
But in a tight election, Victoria could be decisive. Here’s a closer look at some seats at play.
Chisholm
Currently held by the Liberal party with a margin of 0.5%.
Located in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, the electorate of Chisholm is the government’s second most marginal seat.
It won the seat in 2016 when Julia Banks was the Liberal candidate. She quit the party in late 2018 after the leadership spill that saw Morrison become prime minister. The Liberals chose Gladys Liu as her replacement. Liu, who was born in Hong Kong, snared Chisholm by just under 1,100 votes at the 2019 election.
The seat is one of the country’s most diverse – according to the 2016 census data 56.6% of people who live in Chisholm have parents who were born overseas and 50% spoke a language other than English at home. It will be interesting to see how the government’s attacks on Labor over its position on China translate in the seat, given its large Chinese-Australian population.
Labor is running former Victorian Trades Hall Council assistant secretary Carina Garland in the seat. She was named as candidate in July 2021, so has been preparing for some time. It is considered a must-win for the party.
Corangamite
Currently held by the Labor party with a margin of 1%.
The electorate of Corangamite takes in the Bellarine Peninsula, including the surf coast towns of Barwon Heads and Torquay, and the southern suburbs of Geelong. It is currently held by Labor’s Libby Coker, who beat out now senator Sarah Henderson for the seat in 2019.
Having taken leave as Geelong mayor, Stephanie Asher is the Liberal candidate this time around. She ran as an independent for the federal seat of Corio at the 2013 election but joined the Liberal party in 2018. The Liberals are confident they can reclaim the seat. Both Morrison and opposition leader Anthony Albanese have made several visits this year.
Higgins
Currently held by the Liberal party with a margin of 3.7%.
The blue-ribbon electorate of Higgins is located in Melbourne’s inner east and was previously held by Peter Costello, and prime ministers John Gorton and Harold Holt.
It takes in suburbs such as Armadale, Toorak and Glen Iris as well as South Yarra and Prahran, which the Greens hold at a state level, as well as Carnegie, Ormond and Murrumbeena, which has traditionally voted Labor.
In 2019, after Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer retired, the seat became a hard-fought battle between Labor, the Liberals and the Greens. Liberal MP Katie Allen won out and this time she’ll face Labor candidate Michelle Ananda-Rajah and Greens’ Sonya Semmens.
Goldstein
Currently held by the Liberal party with a margin of 7.8%.
Another blue-ribbon seat, currently held by junior government minister Tim Wilson who faces a challenge from former ABC reporter turned independent Zoe Daniel.
It is located in the south-east and takes in the bayside suburbs of Brighton, Sandringham, Black Rock and Beaumaris. The candidates recently made headlines when Wilson complained to the local council that residents were prematurely displaying signs in support of Daniel, and also encouraged people to dob in other neighbours for doing so.
The electorate is one of several held by the Coalition being targeted by climate-focused independents. In nearby Kooyong, treasurer Josh Frydenberg is facing a challenge from Monique Ryan.
Nicholls
Currently held by the National party with a margin of 20%.
Nicholls, formerly Murray, is a regional electorate north of the state, taking in the towns of Shepparton, Echuca, Cobram, Yarrawonga, Boort and Bridgewater.
While the seat is held by the Nationals by a comfortable margin, footballer-turned-politician Damian Drum is retiring.
This has set the stage for an interesting battle between the Nationals, the Liberals – who held the seat between 1996 and 2013 – and Greater Shepparton deputy mayor and prominent local businessman Rob Priestly, who is running as an independent.
