On 20 May, a federal court in the state of Florida indicted the former Cuban president Raúl Castro over his alleged involvement in downing two civilian planes piloted by US nationals in 1996. Castro was the defense minister of Cuba at the time, and aircraft with the Cuban armed forces carried out the attacks. The charges include one count of conspiracy to kill US nationals, two counts of destruction of aircraft and four counts of murder.
On the one hand, the indictment was not a surprise. Immediately after the Trump administration’s bombing of Caracas and extraction of the sitting Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, in January – actions bolstered by a similar indictment against Maduro emanating from a federal district court in New York – numerous indicators suggested that Cuba was next on the list. The Castro indictment seemingly confirms these suspicions, though questions remain about what comes next: will US forces carry out a similar bombing and extraction operation in Cuba? Will there be a full-scale invasion of the island? Or will the threat of these actions be enough to force concessions that might, at least in the short term, satisfy Trump officials?
