Cuba has reached a breaking point that even its crisis-hardened leadership cannot ignore. It is running out of fuel amid US pressure, having last received oil on January 9 from Mexico. This has prompted airlines such as Air Canada to cancel all flights to Cuba, hitting the tourism lifeline that accounts for most of the island’s foreign currency.
Massive power outages are now routine, and the UN has warned of a possible “humanitarian collapse” if Cuba’s oil needs go unmet. For the first time in decades, Cuba’s 67-year-old regime faces a crisis where its traditional survival tools – external bailouts, mass emigration and austerity – may no longer be enough.
Hostility between the US and Cuba dates back to 1960, when the newly socialist Cuban state nationalised American assets. Havana’s subsequent cold war alignment with Moscow then prompted an embargo in 1962 that prohibited almost all trade between the US and Cuba. Since then, Washington’s approach has cycled between pressure and limited engagement.
