Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks during a press conference following a special meeting of Nato leaders in Brussels, Belgium. (Henry Nicholls/PA)
(Picture: PA Wire)The flurry of three summits in Brussels, Nato, the EU and G7, was to be pivotal — an ultimate pledging conference — for the conflict in Ukraine and the security of the entire region. It is set to go on far longer than most politicians and generals seemed to imagine.
The allies said what they would send to keep Ukraine in the fight — $800 million worth of missiles and ammunition from the US, and 6,000 anti-tank rockets from the UK. Some 40,000 troops will be deployed to Nato countries in the east.
More to the point is what the US and Britain are saying they won’t do, for fear of getting themselves into a head-on fight with Putin and his legions. The CIA, we hear from Washington sources, won’t go in to train Ukrainian forces for a guerrilla insurgency, even if the Russians batter their way into eastern Ukraine’s cities. There will be nothing like the CIA operations to help the Mujahideen drive the Russians from Afghanistan in the Eighties. This seems bad tactics — declaring that you’ll negotiate with a weak hand. Like the US, the UK Government seems set to take a minimalist approach. Yet the implosion of Ukraine and a widening war across eastern Europe would hit the whole region, the global economy, and our energy and food security.
Now is the time to take a sober and realistic reappraisal of the UK’s whole approach to defence and security. Whitehall is cautious about spending more on defence — and with reason. But a lot more can and should be done on existing funds. The lofty rhetoric and implicit dysfunction in last year’s Integrated Review and defence white papers should be dumped. It is time to skip to get rid of the bombast.
The lessons of the last 20 years’ dramas, near defeats and strategic reverses need to be absorbed, not ducked.
Defence, the armed forces, diplomacy and security need incisive and decisive reappraisal. Australia did it with its 2020 Strategic Update, and Finland with its 2021 Defence Report Update.
A review and new policy plan is a simple task. Managing the increasingly complex security and resilience agenda isn’t. As with the summits of Brussels yesterday, there must be a much clearer understanding of strategic mission.
That doesn’t mean you have to let your enemy know the fine detail of how you mean to achieve it. Keep him guessing.
