The last time Liz Truss walked into parliament, she was basking in the triumph of seizing the Tory leadership and leading a nation unified in sadness at the Queen’s death.
When she returns this week, she must confront a seething Conservative party in open revolt over the disastrous own goals of the last fortnight – and in panic over a 30-point Labour poll lead.
Here are the challenges that await the prime minister this week:
The economy
Kwasi Kwarteng will face MPs on Tuesday for the first time since his bungled budget – when he could bow to pressure to release the Office for Budget Responsibility’s verdict on his economic plans. It is believed to predict a £60bn-£70bn shortfall since the previous forecast, which would blow out of the water the chancellor’s claim to have a plan to get a grip on borrowing and debt.
If he refuses, expect cross-party efforts to begin to find a route to winkle out the analysis this month, rather than wait until a financial statement on 23 November, on the basis that the public and the markets deserve to be told. Some in Labour, however, consider this a “dusty process” that bores the public – and are keener to nail Mr Kwarteng for soaring mortgage costs.
Benefits uprating
The other immediate conflict, with some Tory MPs already in talks with Labour about how to defeat the government’s hopes of banking £5bn to cut taxes for the wealthy by pegging next April’s benefit increases to the rate of pay increases (around 5 per cent) rather than inflation (roughly 10 per cent).
This would not only be an effective cut but would break a promise Boris Johnson made earlier this year. There is no immediate parliamentary opening to force a climbdown and no announcement is due until November, but many expect Ms Truss to give way before then – especially if, as rumoured, unhappy Cabinet ministers ambush her at their weekly meeting on Tuesday.
Conservative rebels
Ms Truss is expected to address the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on Wednesday, where she will face questions about the extraordinary mistakes that destroyed her political honeymoon and set Labour on a path to power. Before that, No 10 will launch a charm offensive to convince its troops that – contrary to the impression given – the prime minister does care what they think. A source said Ms Truss is keen to “make sure they feel they are being listened to” and that she “wants to hear their views”. She may not be so keen once she hears them.
The financial markets
They have calmed down since the turmoil that followed the “mini-budget” on 23 September – but only because the Bank of England launched an emergency rescue package to save pension funds from collapse, of course. That £65bn of bond-buying will wind up on Friday, a “cliff edge” when panic could return to the City. The latest GDP figures will be published early on Wednesday.
Immigration
Prime ministers often regret their appointments – but rarely as quickly as this one must regret sending the arch-Brexiteer Suella Braverman to the Home Office, where she is fronting an open attempt to block No 10’s plans to loosen visa rules and bring in the workers needed to kickstart a stagnant economy. On Sunday, the Cabinet Office minister Nadhim Zahawi insisted the public will support higher immigration if it delivers growth, so how will the home secretary respond? Meanwhile, the High Court will hear a further challenge to the Rwanda deportation plan on Monday.
The environment
One interesting weekend development was the head of The National Trust threatening to mobilise its 5.7 million members to defend the environment against the Tories, when they should be natural allies. Hilary McGrady accused Ms Truss of “demonising” her movement, leaving members “outraged” by the return of fracking, the removal of environmental protections in “investment zones” and the scrapping of EU green rules. Many Tory MPs share that anger.
Northern Ireland
Although there has been a dramatic improvement in UK-EU relations in recent weeks, the government is ploughing ahead with its international law-busting Bill to tear up the Northern Ireland Protocol. The House of Lords will get its teeth into the legislation on Tuesday and a string of defeats on the most contentious parts is certain.
Scotland
No immediate crisis is looming, but a hugely significant moment in the SNP’s endless campaign for independence will arrive on Tuesday when the Supreme Court case gets underway to decide if Edinburgh can call a fresh referendum without Westminster’s approval. We can also expect a crucial paper on what an independent Scotland’s currency would look like in the next few days.
