With Selection Sunday just around the corner, teams will spend the next 10 days punching their tickets to the NCAA tournament or sweating it out until March 12 to find out whether they’ll get to put their dancing shoes on.
With several high-profile programs right on the bubble, the stretch run of the college basketball regular season has the potential to be filled with chaos. Consider this your guide to the bubble, with analysis of the major story lines to watch over the next 10 days and what each bubble team needs to do to secure their spot in the Big Dance.
Will North Carolina get in?
North Carolina, the preseason No. 1 team in the country, is currently on the outside looking in from a bubble standpoint. The Tar Heels’ missing the tournament would be historic: Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, no preseason No. 1 team has ever missed the Big Dance, while more than half ended up as No. 1 seeds. But with just a 1–8 record in Quad 1 games, the Tar Heels’ résumé just doesn’t stack up favorably with other bubble teams at this point.
If North Carolina can beat Duke in Chapel Hill on Saturday, the Heels will enter the ACC tournament squarely on the bubble, though still likely in need of a quality win or two to punch its ticket. If not, the Heels will almost assuredly need to win the league’s automatic bid to go dancing. We know the Heels have March upside given their run last season, but it will take some serious work to ensure they even get to that point.
Lance King/Getty Images (Love); Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports (Wahl); Maria Lysaker/USA TODAY Sports (Hardaway)
How many losses is disqualifying?
By rule, a team has to finish over .500 on the season for NCAA tournament consideration. But realistically, two clearer thresholds have functioned as eliminators over the years: Just three teams have ever gotten an at-large bid with 15 total losses entering Selection Sunday (none with more than 15), and no team in the past 20 years has gotten in finishing fewer than three games over .500.
The top-to-bottom strength of the Big 12 and the parity we’ve seen in the Big Ten this season mean several teams could be tiptoeing around those two lines over the next week and a half. The Big Ten’s most likely case is Michigan, which would need a road win at Illinois or Indiana to avoid having 15 losses assuming a conference tournament loss. The Wolverines’ disastrous nonconference loss to Central Michigan would likely be enough to keep Michigan out without a deep Big Ten tournament run. Wisconsin would have to lose to lowly Minnesota to get to 15 losses, but the Badgers seem bound for 14 defeats if they can’t upset Purdue on Thursday.
And in the Big 12, Oklahoma State and West Virginia are in tricky positions. Oklahoma State is guaranteed a 15th loss should it not win the league tournament, while West Virginia could easily get there, too. The committee has often been unkind to similar résumés to what these three teams sport: Oklahoma was left out last year at 18–15 with big wins over Baylor, Arkansas and Texas Tech, while Oklahoma State was a notable snub in 2018 at 19–14 despite having several top-end wins.
Will bid thieves shrink the bubble?
The automatic bids given out to every conference tournament champion can throw a late wrench into things for bubble teams currently sweating near the cut line. Last year, Virginia Tech entered Champ Week outside the projected field, then won the ACC tournament to send itself dancing. The year before, Oregon State and Georgetown came out of nowhere to win the Pac-12 and Big East tournaments, respectively, wiping away two projected at-large teams from getting in.
One team many are circling as a potential bid thief this year is Villanova, which isn’t in the mix for an at-large bid but has reeled in impressive recent wins over Xavier and Creighton. With star guard Justin Moore finally healthy, Villanova looks the part and will be a tough out at Madison Square Garden. Anyone other than Florida Atlantic winning the Conference USA tournament would shrink the bubble by one, as the Owls are likely dancing regardless. A team like Utah State or New Mexico from the Mountain West could run through that tournament and claim an otherwise-up-for-grabs bid.
How important will conference tournament results be?
A major story of last year’s bracket was how little emphasis the committee seemingly put on conference tournament results, particularly games played Saturday and Sunday ahead of the Selection Show. This was most evident in seeding, but the selection committee’s choosing to leave out a Texas A&M team that had made a run all the way to the SEC championship game was notable and led to quite the rant from Buzz Williams.
If a similar story plays out this year, that could be bad news for teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble trying to make their case. That said, it also wouldn’t surprise me if the committee actually swings too far in the opposite direction and puts in a team whose résumé may be otherwise lacking that has momentum off a deep run in its conference tournament.
Tom Pennington/Getty Images
Most important bubble games until conference tournaments start:
- March 1: Penn State at Northwestern
- March 2: Purdue at Wisconsin
- March 2: Michigan at Illinois
- March 2: Arizona State at UCLA
- March 4: Duke at North Carolina
- March 4: Boise State at Utah State
- March 4: Arizona State at USC
- March 4: Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
- March 4: Kansas State at West Virginia
- March 5: Houston at Memphis
- March 5: Maryland at Penn State
Conference Breakdown
ACC
Safely in (3): Virginia, Miami, Duke.
On the bubble (4): NC State, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Clemson.
NC State (22–9, 12–8 ACC)
- Current Status (Updated Tuesday): 10-seed
Things at least got interesting for the Wolfpack when they got blown out at home by Clemson over the weekend. I still think NC State’s worst case is probably a trip to Dayton, but the Pack can remove all doubt by winning a game in the ACC tournament. If nothing else, avoiding a bad loss is likely enough.
Pittsburgh (21–9, 14–5 ACC)
- Current Status: 10-seed
Pitt could have essentially locked itself into the field Wednesday night, but instead lost to lowly Notre Dame in coach Mike Brey’s final game in South Bend. It could turn out to be an incredibly costly loss for Jeff Capel’s club, pushing the Panthers close to the bubble heading into the last weekend of ACC play. A win against Miami this weekend would lock the Panthers in, but if they can’t win that one, avoiding an early ACC tournament exit is critical.
North Carolina (19–11, 11–8 ACC)
- Current Status: First Four Out
We already discussed North Carolina’s outlook at the top, but in short, the Heels’ biggest flaw right now is a lack of quality wins. Whether they come Saturday against Duke or in the ACC tournament, the Heels need at least one and probably two more Quad 1 wins before Selection Sunday to have any confidence they’ll be dancing.
Clemson (21–9, 13–6 ACC)
- Current Status: First Four Out
Clemson’s winning record in Quad 1 games (4–3) is a rarity among bubble teams and has kept the Tigers in the conversation despite four bad losses against South Carolina, Loyola Chicago, Louisville and Boston College. The other issue for Clemson is relatively poor metrics, ranking No. 69 in KenPom even after blowing out NC State on the road over the weekend. The Tigers will need to make a run in the ACC tournament to get in.
AAC
Joe Rondone/The Commercial Appeal/USA TODAY NETWORK
Safely in (1): Houston.
On the bubble (1): Memphis.
Memphis (22–7, 12–4 AAC)
- Current Status: 10-seed—Last Four Byes
Memphis has built a solid résumé despite playing in a weak AAC, with two good nonconference wins against SEC rival Texas A&M and Auburn, as well as seven Quad 2 wins to help bolster their team sheet. They’ve also mostly avoided damaging losses in a league full of potential land mines, with just one Quad 3 defeat that came against a solid Tulane team. The Tigers could make things very easy and lock up a bid by beating Houston over the weekend. If not, they’re still likely in without a catastrophic loss, but could end up being sent to Dayton for the First Four.
Big East
Safely in (5): Marquette, Xavier, Providence, Creighton, UConn.
On the bubble: None.
There’s been a substantial drop-off all season in the Big East after its top five teams, and all five have a strong chance of wearing home uniforms in the first round of the NCAA tournament. At this point, though, a sixth bid would almost assuredly have to come from a surprise run to win the Big East tournament. Seton Hall or Villanova might be in the conversation if they can reach the league title game, but aren’t currently in serious consideration at this point.
Big Ten
Safely in (8): Purdue, Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers.
On the bubble (3): Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State.
Wisconsin (16–12, 8–10 Big Ten)
- Current Status: 11-seed—Last Four In
The Badgers have played a very difficult schedule, with 22 of the team’s 28 games having been played against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. They’ve avoided bad losses, grabbed a massive road win at Marquette in December and in total have stacked up six Quad 1 victories. But the Badgers’ metrics are among the worst of any bubble team, and Wisconsin is just 5–10 since an 11–2 start. A win over Purdue would likely punch the Badgers’ ticket, but without that the Badgers will need a couple of wins at the Big Ten tournament to feel comfortable.
Michigan (17–12, 11–7 Big Ten)
- Current Status: Next Four Out
Michigan continues to walk a tightrope to stay in the bubble picture, hanging on after a Hunter Dickinson heave forced overtime against Wisconsin on Sunday. The Wolverines are still 3–10 in Quad 1 games and have a dreadful loss to Central Michigan on their ledger, but get two huge road opportunities against Illinois and Indiana to close out the season. Realistically, Michigan probably needs at least one win in that stretch, and even that might not be enough.
Penn State (18–12, 9–10 Big Ten)
- Current Status: Next Four Out
It has been a strange week for the Nittany Lions, blowing a big lead at home Sunday against Rutgers before adding a Quad 1 road win at Northwestern on Wednesday. That win in Evanston keeps Penn State right in the thick of bubble conversations heading into a big game this weekend against Maryland to wrap up the regular season. A win there or a big victory or two in the Big Ten tournament might be enough to help the Nittany Lions sneak into the field.
Big 12
Ben Queen/USA TODAY Sports
Safely in (6): Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State.
On the bubble (2): West Virginia, Oklahoma State.
West Virginia (17–13, 6–11 Big 12)
- Current Status: 11-seed—Last Four Byes
The Mountaineers got a much-needed win on the road at Iowa State on Monday. With a strong résumé otherwise, the only thing that could keep West Virginia out of the field would be losing its final two games to sit at 17–15 overall. One more win, whether that be against Kansas State at home Saturday or in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, should do the trick, even if that means hitting that 15-loss threshold.
Oklahoma State (16–14, 7–10 Big 12)
- Current Status: First Four Out
The Cowboys are in trouble now after a fifth consecutive loss, three of which have come at home. Oklahoma State now has four home losses in conference play, a death knell in a league as competitive as the Big 12. Saturday against Texas Tech is a must-win, and even that might not be enough without a win in the Big 12 tournament.
Mountain West
Safely in (1): San Diego State.
On the bubble (4): Nevada, Boise State, Utah State, New Mexico.
Nevada (22–8, 12–5 Mountain West)
- Current Status: 10-seed—Last Four Byes
The Wolf Pack did the one thing it needed to avoid Monday, taking a bad loss to Wyoming to mar an otherwise-clean résumé. The Pack are still on solid ground, particularly if they beat rival UNLV at home Saturday. But a loss there would push Nevada perilously close to the bubble heading into conference tournament week.
Boise State (22–7, 13–4 Mountain West)
- Current Status: 11-seed—Last Four In
The Broncos’ place in the field is more secure than its Last Four In status from Tuesday, as Boise State’s big win over San Diego State gives them some breathing room. The two Quad 3 losses the Broncos took in the nonconference does leave some room for doubt, but one more win is probably enough to be in without too much of a sweat.
Utah State (23–7, 12–5 Mountain West)
- Current Status: First Four Out
The Aggies have one of the more interesting résumés of any bubble team, as they have zero Quad 1 wins and a pair of bad losses but impressive metrics. The Aggies do get Boise State at home to close the regular season and will have chances to move the needle in the Mountain West tournament. Five of the 10 most similar résumés to Utah State in T-Rank’s database have gotten in as at-larges, so this one could truly go either way.
New Mexico (21–9, 8–9 Mountain West)
- Current Status: Also considered
New Mexico was the nation’s last undefeated team, but things have gone south after a 14–0 start. The Lobos lost seven of nine at one point, including two games on buzzer beaters and a third on a questionable flagrant 1 foul call in the closing seconds. The Lobos could work themselves back into the bubble picture with a Quad 2 win over Colorado State to close the regular season and a pair of Quad 1 wins in the Mountain West quarterfinals and semifinals, but the autobid is likely UNM’s best bet at this point.
Pac-12
Safely in (3): UCLA, Arizona, USC.
On the bubble (2): Arizona State, Oregon.
Arizona State (20–9, 11–7 Pac-12)
- Current Status: 11-seed—Last Four In
The Sun Devils’ NCAA tournament hopes got new life Saturday when Desmond Cambridge’s heave from beyond half court swished home to upset Arizona in Tucson. The Sun Devils still have a ghastly loss to Texas Southern on their résumé, but are 8–8 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, and also possess an impressive neutral court win over Creighton. A split this weekend against UCLA and USC would put the Sun Devils in a decent position heading into the Pac-12 tournament.
Oregon (16–13, 10–8 Pac-12)
- Current Status: Also considered
It’s hard to imagine a 14-loss team from the Pac-12 getting an at-large bid, but the Ducks could at least make things interesting with a run to the Pac-12 tournament final. The Ducks will rue their three-game losing skid in February if they do come up just short of the Big Dance for a second straight season.
SEC
Safely in (6): Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas
On the bubble (2): Auburn, Mississippi State
Auburn (19–11, 9–8 SEC)
- Current Status: 11-seed—Last Four Byes
Auburn is still fairly safe, mostly because they likely won’t play another game that could be considered a bad loss. Still, the Tigers have inched themselves closer and closer to the cut line by going 3–8 in their last 11 games with just one top-100 win since Jan. 15. Lose their final conference game to Tennessee and make an early exit in the SEC tournament, and all of a sudden things could get interesting.
Mississippi State (20–10, 8–9 SEC)
- Current Status: 11-seed—Last Four In
After starting 11–0 with a win over Marquette, losing eight of nine games in late December and January jeopardized the Bulldogs’ NCAA tournament hopes. Still, with 20 wins including that neutral-court victory over Marquette, a road win at Arkansas and a home victory over TCU, Mississippi State should be in decent shape. A road win at Vanderbilt on Saturday or an early-round victory at the SEC tournament would help them breathe easier, though.
Other Mid-Majors
Safely in (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s.
On the bubble (3): Florida Atlantic, College of Charleston, Oral Roberts.
Florida Atlantic (26–3, 16–2 Conference USA)
- Current Status: 9-seed
The Owls are in very good shape for an at-large bid. Even just a split this week in a pair of road Quad 3 games against Rice and Louisiana Tech would likely be enough to ensure FAU goes dancing regardless of what happens in the C-USA tournament.
College of Charleston (28–3, 16–2 CAA)
- Current Status: Next Four Out
Charleston’s at-large hopes looked dashed after the Cougars took consecutive Quad 3 losses to Hofstra and Drexel, but Pat Kelsey’s team won out and looked good doing it, winning their final seven games by an average of 24 points. The Cougars rose from 69 to 51 in the NET rankings in that stretch. If they make the CAA tournament final, it’d be hard to keep out a 30–4 team from the Big Dance despite their résumé deficiencies.
- Current Status: Autobid/also considered
Oral Roberts has lost once since Thanksgiving, has no bad losses and yet still likely won’t go dancing should it slip up in the Summit League tournament. The Golden Eagles’ lack of a Quad 1 win likely hurts them, as does the fact that 26 of the team’s 27 wins have come against Quad 3, Quad 4 or non–Division I teams. Still, they may at least be on the bubble should they reach the Summit League title game and then come up short.
