Friday’s 2026 FIFA World Cup draw was tough for many reasons, and once we eventually got to the good stuff, the star-studded “draw assistants” were able to conjure up some belting groups.
Forty-two nations had their potential paths to glory in North America mapped out at the Kennedy Center, with the final six spots determined via next March’s European and inter-continental playoffs.
FIFA’s insatiable desire for expansion means the upcoming tournament will be the grandest in the competition’s almost 100-year history. Initially, it had been planned for the 48 teams to be drawn into 16 groups of three, but the drama that played out on the final group stage matchday in 2022 convinced FIFA to change tack and retain four-team groups.
That uncharacteristically wise decision opened the door for a ‘Group of Death’ to manifest in North America, an unavoidable phrase in draw discourse, and there are certainly a few contenders for the 2026 mantle.
To determine the ‘toughest’ draw at next summer’s World Cup, Sports Illustrated have calculated the average FIFA world ranking of each group on the day of the overly complicated draw. So, let’s see what FIFA believes is the 2026 World Cup ‘Group of Death’.
Toughest Group at the 2026 World Cup
On the surface, Group I looks the deadliest. France, Senegal and Norway all locking horns? Woof. Oh, and don’t forget the winner of Inter-Continental Playoff 2 (Bolivia, Suriname or Iraq)!
We opted against projecting who’ll make it through each playoff pathway and worked out the average world ranking for each playoff path, using the nations involved. That figure was then used to complete our group difficulty rankings, but Group I, perhaps surprisingly, doesn’t come out on top.
Instead, the group that will see Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland go head-to-head ranks as the joint-second toughest, along with England’s Group L.
Boasting an average world ranking of 29, L will throw English supporters back to the wondrous summer of 2018. The Three Lions will face off against Panama and Croatia, who they succumbed to in the semifinals of that tournament, as well as Ghana for the first time on soccer’s grandest stage.
A more modest group on paper is technically the toughest. Few would recommend Group F for deathly status, but the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia all rank inside FIFA’s top 40. Perhaps decisively, UEFA Playoff B—befit with Ukraine, Sweden, Poland or Albania—is the toughest pathway, and the nation that qualifies will compete in an evenly matched group with an average ranking of 26.
As for the USMNT, Mauricio Pochettino will be pretty content with his nation’s opponents on home soil. With an average ranking of 33, Group D is the fifth-toughest, also containing Australia, Paraguay and UEFA Playoff Winner C, which will be one of Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo.
Their group ranks as the most challenging among the three co-hosts, with Canada in a rather tame Group B with Switzerland, Qatar and UEFA Playoff Winner A (although that could be four-time winners Italy). Mexico will face South Korea, South Africa and UEFA Playoff Winner D. Canada’s Group B is eighth hardest and Mexico’s Group A is regarded as slightly easier in ninth.
Every 2026 World Cup Group Ranked by Difficulty
| Rank | Group | Teams | Average FIFA World Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | F | Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, UEFA Playoff B Winner | 26 |
| 2. | I | France, Senegal, Norway, FIFA Playoff 2 Winner | 29 |
| 3. | L | England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama | 29 |
| 4. | J | Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | 32 |
| 5. | D | USMNT, Australia, Paraguay, UEFA Playoff C Winner | 33 |
| 6. | K | Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, FIFA Playoff 1 Winner | 34 |
| 7. | C | Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti | 34 |
| 8. | B | Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, UEFA Playoff A Winner | 35 |
| 9. | A | Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, UEFA Playoff D Winner | 36 |
| 10. | H | Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde | 36 |
| 11. | G | Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | 37 |
| 12. | E | Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao | 39 |
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Toughest Groups from 2026 World Cup Draw—Ranked.
