The Tennessee Titans have been one of the NFL’s busiest teams this offseason.
They outbid the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars for Calvin Ridley’s services, then added Tyler Boyd later in free agency. They replaced Derrick Henry with Tony Pollard and orchestrated a deal to bring All-Pro caliber cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to fix a lagging secondary. A pair of top 40 draft picks solidified both sides of the line in offensive tackle JC Latham and defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat.
There’s no doubt general manager Ran Carthon has transmogrified his roster in an effort to separate these Titans from the run-heavy throwback squads that defined deposed head coach Mike Vrabel’s success. But none of those changes will matter if Tennessee can’t put a franchise quarterback in the middle of it.
And Will Levis, in a small sample size, hasn’t been that guy.
Levis was exactly the kind of high variance passer you’d expect from a rookie second round quarterback. Stuck on a six-win team with some of the NFL’s worst pass blocking, he put in work to lead the Titans through tough situations.
This included a steady diet of “aw hell, DeAndre Hopkins is down there somewhere” throws. His 10.6 air yards per throw were the deepest average distance in the league by more than a yard and a half. Baker Mayfield led the NFL with 73 deep passes (20-plus yards downfield) in 2024. Levis averaged 1.5 more deep throws per game than him — and completed as many of these deep throws (21) in nine weeks as Mayfield did in 17.
This led to some highlight reel moments, including a four-touchdown day in his NFL debut (Marcus Mariota did it first). It also led to a league-worst 58.4 percent completion rate, more than three sacks per game and a 3-6 record as a starting quarterback.
His -3.2 percent completion rate over expected, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, was only fourth-worst in the league but ahead of only guys like Taylor Heinicke, Trevor Siemian and Tommy DeVito. Despite his preference for big throws, his average completion only made it either 6.7 yards downfield (per Next Gen Stats) or 7.1 (per Pro Football Reference).
Carthon is betting an upgraded supporting cast can unlock the inner Josh Allen within the former Kentucky star, just like Buffalo did with its mercurial, big-armed, low-accuracy QB. Latham has the talent to protect his blindside. Hopkins, Ridley and Boyd make up a trustworthy top wideout trio, creating valuable insurance if former first round pick Treylon Burks continues to struggle. If those guys can create space, tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo can exploit it with his high level athleticism and run-after-catch prowess.
That’s all a very big bet on a player who lacked the pre-draft raves Allen did. But you can argue he’s slightly ahead of where the former Wyoming star was at the same point in his career. Levis craves action and runs face first into danger like the Bills quarterback:
HE'S LEVIS-TATING
Send @will_levis to the Pro Bowl » https://t.co/M6tlEVcH9I
📺: Watch #INDvsTEN on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/NVQXoICyPQ
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 3, 2023
He also put up numbers that correspond more closely to Allen’s second second in the pros — a year in which he made it to the playoffs — than his rookie year:
Allen made life easier on himself by staying on schedule more often and creating manageable third downs and showed up in the clutch, as shown by his four fourth quarter comebacks and five game winning drives. But the rest of the stats suggest Levis could be on the same trajectory. In 2020, the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs, ran to the top of the AFC East and had a bonafide MVP candidate behind center.
That’s the plan for Levis, but it discounts the fact Allen is one of one. Not only was he a higher regarded draft prospect, but he walked a tightrope between traits and development few have ever walked. There’s a reason all those “Josh Allen apology forms” were trending on Twitter in 2020 and 2021. Conventional wisdom suggested he wouldn’t work out, until he did.
Asking Levis to do the same is unfair. It’s also the only bet Carthon could make. Drafting at seventh overall meant being locked out of the top tier of this year’s quarterbacks. While J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix were each available, there’s no guarantee any would be better than Levis. Rather than burn a premium pick on another quarterback with borderline credentials — after drafting Levis in the second round in 2023 and Malik Willis in the third in 2022 — Tennessee shifted to another need that can provide massive value in Latham.
Upgrading the roster props up Levis, but also creates the reality where the Titans will once again be locked out of the top draft slots even if he fails. That’s fine, since 2025 is expected to be a weak year for quarterbacks anyway. There might be some big name free agents available — notably Dak Prescott, Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa — or those guys could all agree to extensions and never sniff the open market.
Thus, Levis’s long odds became arguably Tennessee’s best bet. There’s a roapmap to success here, even if that road is filled with wrecks and the bulk of it has been reclaimed by the jungle growing around it. There’s an evolving ecosystem of NFL quarterbacks that made the Titans’ Ryan Tannehill era untenable while locking the team out of the other proven ways to land a star.
Carthon’s moves and his team’s busy offseason may be the equivalent of putting rims and a spoiler on a Mercury Tracer. Or they could be exactly what Levis needs to rise up to speed. The Titans didn’t have much other choice in the matter but to be swallowed whole by complacency. Even if the Levis experiment fails, it’s a worthy one.
