The Timberwolves have a losing record to begin the 2022-23 NBA season, and their offense hasn’t gotten much momentum.
Minnesota has lost four of its last five games, and Anthony Edwards looked particularly ineffective during a loss against the Knicks. He was 1-for-7 on his 3-pointers, and the optics were bad.
We projected Edwards as the best player under 23 years old before the season began. After his team traded for Rudy Gobert, another leap forward felt totally within reason for the former No. 1 overall pick. There are still dominant scoring flashes from Edwards. But unfortunately, we’re not seeing that leap — literally or figuratively.
Per our research, he is averaging 0.23 dunks per 100 possessions so far this season. Compare that to last season (1.13) or his rookie campaign (1.44) and the reason for concern is obvious.
But what is even more concerning when you look at what has happened when the ball is not actually in his hands, and his hands are just on his hips. Even though it’s just one possession, in a social media age, this simply cannot happen:
Anthony Edwards disconnected mid-game 🤣pic.twitter.com/gfnEAGY9OO
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) November 7, 2022
Based on his body language in that clip, you would think the Timberwolves have struggled to get him involved in the offense. But that is not the case, as his usage rate has remained consistent (between 26.4% and 26.8%) during each of his three professional seasons.
Edwards is actually getting to the rim more often than ever before, averaging career-high marks in both drives per game (13.4) and rim frequency (42%) so far this season.
There was little doubt Edwards, one of the most athletic young players in the NBA, could still get up there. He proved that he still had his vertical pop. The problem, however, is what happens when he actually gets to the rim.
He explained that the lane always feels too clogged for him:
“Every time I can get to the rim, I have no chance to dunk. Everybody is in the paint, I’ve got to figure out how to lay the ball up. I’m all of 6’4, 6’5 — I can’t just jump over everybody, man. I ain’t as tall as Giannis.”
Edwards also said that it is better for him when his team plays small. That isn’t great to hear considering are paying Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns each more than $33 million in average annual value.
According to Edwards, Minnesota’s problem is that they play soft. He said other teams are able to “punk” them.
For what it is worth, though, there is at least some merit to these comments about lineups. Minnesota has actually been outscored by 6.6 points per 100 possessions during the 187 minutes that Edwards has shared the floor with Towns and Gobert.
The five-man lineup with that trio alongside D’Angelo Russell and Jaden McDaniels has the third-worst point differential (-30) in the league among groups that have played at least 15 minutes together so far this season.
Chris Finch on Naz Reid:
"One of the reasons our offense functions so well with Naz on the floor is that his decision-making is very quick and it's on-point. And it doesn't matter if it's with ball or without the ball, he's doing something quickly for his teammates." pic.twitter.com/vlR8PymrEG
— Dane Moore (@DaneMooreNBA) November 3, 2022
Edwards, however, has not had that issue when paired with Naz Reid. That is one of Minnesota’s strongest two-man pairings, and Reid’s 3-point shooting and his ability to put the ball on the floor help Edwards space the court.
Overall, in 42 minutes Edwards has appeared without the two bigs, the Timberwolves have actually outscored opponents by a comically high 51.2 points per 100 possessions.
Edwards is getting to the rim more often when Gobert is not on the floor, and he is getting way more free-throw attempts. But even if it is true that Reid is a better fit alongside Edwards than Gobert, there is only so much that can be done after Minnesota invested so many assets into the trade.
Fortunately, this is still a ridiculously small sample size, and may not last long. Edwards said that it isn’t worth reading too much into this until further along in the season.
The Timberwolves still have plenty of time to figure it out, but the early returns do not look promising, and they have a lot of work to do to figure out their chemistry.
We’ve seen Edwards respond to wake-up calls before — like when he was called out by Warriors head coach Steve Kerr during a pre-draft workout — and for him to ascend the way he is capable, he needs to do it again.
