Before the Six Nations commenced I stated that Wales, defending champions or not, would this time be battling with Scotland to see who finished fourth and who ended up last from bottom.
This weekend's game was key to deciding that and, given the Principality Stadium factor and the way the Cardiff crowd can influence things, I was reasonably confident Wales would be the ones coming fourth.
Having witnessed the contrasting fortunes of the two teams from the opening weekend, I'm suddenly not so sure. Far from it, in fact.
Read more: Wales were awful in Ireland but those writing Welsh rugby's obituary are premature
Every single aspect of our performance against Ireland was poor. The stats showed we were second best on possession and territory, the lineout was awful, we lost the breakdown, the scrum was reasonable I suppose - until the replacements came on and we went backwards.
Then, to compound matters, we didn't even look like creating or scoring with the possession we did manage. Ireland just waited for the Welsh players to run out of ideas, lose their composure and give the ball back to them, which is what happened time and again.
Yes, I know Taine Basham bagged a try, and if anyone was deserving then he was, but that was more from Ireland throwing the ball to us than Wales opening up their defence with any form of subtlety.
There was next to nothing to enthuse about and, by contrast, Scotland will head to Cardiff buoyant after beating England and feeling they can exploit the Welsh weaknesses shown up in Dublin.
For years, Scotland have been developing a loose game where they run everything back at you, something they perhaps have been forced to do as they don't possess a great pool of players to produce a conventional team, so to speak.
Finn Russell orchestrates everything and Wales' kicking will need to be spot on to stop Scotland just countering and cutting us apart with their invention and flair.
But despite the doom currently doing the rounds, it's definitely a game Wales are more than capable of winning. There are players in this team who previously have been outstanding for their country and they need to get back to those levels.
In fact, there is an argument for saying if Wayne Pivac named the same XV again and gave them a good arse kicking and plenty of straight talking, a much better performance and victory would be produced.
However, while I'm against wholesale changes, not making any after that Dublin horror show would send out the wrong message. In elite sport if you don't produce the goods someone else needs to come in and have a go and I feel there are three main selection decisions Pivac has to make in order for Wales to bounce back to winning ways.
The first would be ditching this experiment of playing Josh Adams in the centre. You could argue playing him at 13 weakens two positions, centre and wing, because Adams is a wide man through and through, one of the best around, and we should be utilising his strengths out there.
Centre is a very specialised position and Willis Halaholo should come in at 12, with Nick Tompkins, who battled gamely in Ireland, moved outside to Adams' 13 jersey.
Johnny McNicholl would need to miss out, but for me these simple changes would offer much greater balance to the back line.
The other two changes should come in the pack, starting with young Dewi Lake as starting hooker.
The lineout really disappointed me in Dublin, it looks like we haven't progressed in any way whatsoever in that crucial area. There were similar problems last season, but the coaches and players seemed to sort out the glitches as the tournament progressed, yet here we were again on Saturday with the same old problems evident once more.
We appear to have gone backwards and I feel there has to be a question mark over Ryan Elias.
At 22, Lake is very much the future, is really highly regarded behind the scenes, and I thought he showed up well in the loose when coming on for Elias at the weekend.
Unfortunately, his throwing in is said to be his weakness and he lost the first throw against Ireland, but the truth is we haven't seen enough of him at this level to say it is a problem area.
He certainly has lots of other attributes and it's not as if our lineout isn't a problem anyway. Yes Lake is young and inexperienced, but what's that old adage of if you're good enough, you're old enough?
Perhaps the time has come to give Lake his opportunity and see if the dynamism he offers can bring a new dimension to the team.
The other forwards often take their lead from the hooker. I saw some stats which showed Lake made 11 metres from three runs, while the Welsh starting front five made just 14 metres collectively.
He can clearly carry the ball, but also hits hard in the tackle and is capable of turning over opposition ball.
Wales do need more go-forward from the pack which hopefully Lake can bring and, to that end, I'd also make a change in the back-row by replacing Ellis Jenkins with Ross Moriarty.
I admit to worrying about Jenkins coping with the pace and intensity Scotland will bring on Saturday. Remember, he had two years out of the game and I was concerned about his return to the Test arena so soon.
Pivac even made Jenkins captain in the autumn, so I thought they must know better than I do, see something behind the scenes.
To be fair, Jenkins did reasonably well, is a good reader of the game and utilised those strengths to return successfully, but he looked way off the pace in Dublin and perhaps needs more game time at regional level with Cardiff.
The fact Pivac didn't give him the Six Nations captaincy was kind of telling, in a way.
Moriarty has had injury issues of his own, but he was released from the squad to get game time the previous weekend and hopefully is fit enough to start.
He brings experience, an abrasive edge and power, as we have seen in the past.
Those are the kind of qualities Wales will require to beat a Scotland side who will head here brimful of confidence and seeking to impose a looser structured game on PIvac's team.
Pricey's Wales XV: L Williams; J Adams, N Tompkins, W Halaholo, L Rees-Zammit; D Biggar, T Williams; W Jones, D Lake, T Francis, A Beard, W Rowlands, R Moriarty, T Basham, A Wainwright.
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