- Despite a tentative ceasefire between America and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial shipping, with only three Iranian-linked vessels transiting since the announcement.
- Traffic through the critical waterway is significantly reduced, and Iran's toll system for transit, requiring detailed documentation and payment, remains fully intact.
- Brent crude prices climbed above $96 a barrel due to doubts over the ceasefire's durability, exacerbated by Israel's continued strikes and Iran's accusations of truce violations.
- Threats persist from both sides; Donald Trump stated US troops would remain until the agreement is fully complied with, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned vessels against unsanctioned transit.
- Analysts are sceptical about a quick resumption of traffic, even if the ceasefire holds, citing high volatility, elevated insurance premiums, and the need for a US delegation to negotiate the strait's reopening.
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