CheckMate is a weekly newsletter from RMIT FactLab which recaps the latest in the world of fact checking and misinformation, drawing on the work of FactLab and its sister organisation, RMIT ABC Fact Check.
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CheckMate October 28, 2022
In this week's edition, we remind readers why the findings of online polls should be treated with caution, particularly on touchy subjects such as COVID-19 vaccines.
We also run the rule over the treasurer's budget speech and set the record straight on ousted UK prime minister Liz Truss's future pay packet.
Why online poll results should be taken with a grain of salt
It was Mark Twain who once said "facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable".
This week, a popular Australian news site appeared to underscore his point.
Sharing the responses to a set of online questions posed on its site, news.com.au reported the "surprising" finding that half of all respondents said they regretted getting vaccinated against COVID-19 or were happy with their decision to remain unvaccinated.
Meanwhile, "only 35 per cent out of more than 45,000 people said they were vaccinated and would make the same decision again".
But those stats are problematic.
Despite suggestions the data tells a story about Australia, the poll responses contradict data collected and reported by health authorities and do not appear to reflect reality.
While 44 per cent of news.com.au respondents claimed they had not received any doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of Thursday afternoon, the federal health department reports that just 2.7 per cent of Australians aged 16 and over are unvaccinated.
So, what might have led to that vast discrepancy?
CheckMate has identified dozens of instances of the poll being shared in online groups populated by anti-vax activists, some with direct callouts encouraging manipulation of the results.
"COME ON FOLKS GET TO IT. SHOW THEM THE RESULTS WE WANT THEM TO SEE," one such post on Telegram reads. "KEEP VOTING AND SHARE FAR AND WIDE."
Links to the poll have also been shared outside Australia, including by a verified Croatian Facebook user with more than 50,000 followers.
Anne Kruger, director of the Asia Pacific division of the Information Futures Lab, told CheckMate her organisation monitored a "wide range of social media apps and online spaces" and regularly observed "groups and pages attempting to manipulate the outcome" of online polls.
Such polls, Dr Kruger said, were "easily interpreted by audiences as being organic and showing the opinions of the masses".
"In this example, the poll has been shared by groups that track back to anti-vaccine websites with a particular focus on COVID-19. The poll has been pushed in closed online spaces by different groups with tens of thousands of followers, with each post viewed thousands of times over."
According to Dr Kruger, these online poll results were "not scientific" and should "never be generalised" as they typically include people who frequently used certain social media
"Unfortunately, there are many news reports out there that sound as if the results of such limited surveys could reveal some trend about our society," she said.
"You should dismiss such news reports as inconsistent or even baseless."
No new fines for Victoria's parks, despite claims
News sites and social media users have been caught out pushing claims that the Victorian government is planning to introduce hefty new fines as part of changes to regional and metropolitan park regulations.
According to some, there will soon be a new $1,849 fine for engaging in recreational park activity without a permit, as well as tighter restrictions on group gatherings, firewood collection, swimming and bushwalking.
But these claims are lacking context, RMIT FactLab has found.
While the state government is updating its existing regulations, which will apply to some parks not currently regulated, it is not introducing steep new fines nor imposing the types of prohibitive restrictions being suggested.
The new rules will only restrict activities for specific reasons such as protecting cultural heritage and biodiversity or ensuring public safety.
A spokesperson for the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning said: "The regulations do not restrict any activities that are currently allowed. People can still climb, bushwalk, swim and enjoy Victoria's public land in the exact same [way] they have been previously."
Several of the media claims also listed supposedly "new" rules that could see park visitors hit with substantial fines for interfering with park biodiversity or for walking off a park trail, but, as FactLab explained, these fines already apply.
The fact checkers also noted that swimming is already prohibited in metropolitan parks but will continue to be permitted in regional parks where it is currently allowed.
Jim Chalmers exaggerates 'Liberal debt'
In the lead-up to this week's federal budget, RMIT ABC Fact Check found that the government overstepped the mark in blaming all its fiscal woes on its predecessor.
According to Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Labor inherited a budget "heaving with a trillion dollars in Liberal Party debt".
But that claim was exaggerated, Fact Check said, highlighting that net debt was closer to $500 billion when the Coalition left office, while gross debt — at roughly $900 billion — was not expected to pass the trillion-dollar mark for another year.
Crucially, on either measure, around a third of the debt existed before the Coalition came to power.
Experts told Fact Check that debt had ballooned under the Coalition before COVID-19 arrived in Australia, but it was unreasonable to ignore the circumstances behind government spending, including the impact of the pandemic.
They also said it made little sense to focus on the dollar figure of debt without also considering the size of the economy, since the real question was whether the debt was sustainable.
But did he get his budget facts straight?
While Labor's budget speech was overwhelmingly future-focused, Mr Chalmers did make a number of claims about debt, wages, apprentices and energy. But did he get all his facts straight?
Fact Check found that for the most part, the treasurer was close to the mark.
His claim that gross debt as a proportion of GDP was at its highest level in 70 years, for instance, was in the ballpark (in fact, it was higher 67 years ago).
Meanwhile, Mr Chalmers was correct to say that real wages were higher 10 years ago compared with today, and his numbers checked out when claiming that 20,000 fewer Australians completed a trade apprenticeship in 2021 than 2012.
And when it came to energy policy, the treasurer's suggestion that renewable energy is "cheaper energy" aligned with a previous fact-check finding that renewables were the cheapest new-build electricity generation option in Australia.
The facts on ex-PM Liz Truss's $200,000 'pension'
Citing an inability to deliver on a mandate to cut taxes and boost economic growth, UK prime minister Liz Truss last week resigned after just 44 days in the top job.
Soon after, claims began circulating that Ms Truss's short-lived stay at Number 10 Downing Street would see her receive a £115,000 ($205,000) annual payment for life.
But while some media outlets and social media users described this amount as a "salary" or "pension", fact checkers at UK-based Full Fact explained that this was not quite right.
"Former prime ministers are entitled to claim up to £115,000 a year after they leave office, but this is for expenses associated with continuing public duties, rather than a salary," they noted.
That said, in practice, most former prime ministers claimed close to the full amount, as Full Fact detailed.
"In 2020-21, which is the most recent year we have accounts for, Sir John Major, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron all claimed more than £110,000, while Theresa May claimed about £58,000."
Edited by Ellen McCutchan and David Campbell
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