With voting underway to determine the next Tory party leader — and Britain’s new Prime Minister — both candidates will know the winner faces enormous challenges, perhaps the greatest for a new occupant of No 10 in decades.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has not only brought the return of death and destruction to Europe but has further ruptured global supply chains, put rocket boosters under inflation and sent food and energy prices into the stratosphere.
If left unchecked, energy prices — set to rise to around £4,000 next year — will leave millions shivering in the cold. Covid-19 continues in its long tail, with record NHS waiting lists and labour market disruption. Speaking of which, rising prices have lead to widespread industrial action. And the Bank of England forecasts that we will enter an extended recession starting this year.
Meanwhile, Brexit continues to depress economic growth and has exacerbated labour shortages seen across the economy. Finally, climate change, and our ability to make net zero not just a commitment but a reality, will require iron political will. This is an in-tray few would envy.
The polls suggest that Liz Truss is the favourite to win the contest with Rishi Sunak. The Foreign Secretary has made a clear pitch to the 150,000-odd members of the Conservative Party, with a focus on tax cuts and her record in office, which includes her steadfast support for Ukraine. Should she triumph, her challenge will not only be the geopolitical and economic ones set out above, but also whether she can win over the rest of the country.
Levelling up
In the Standard this week, Truss made her pitch to Londoners in which she stressed that levelling up “does not mean leaving the capital behind”, with a focus on growing the economy and on making our streets safer. So far, she has made the stronger case to be the better PM for London.
Londoners will hope a new PM will reset the relationship between central government and City Hall. Our city is the engine room of the UK economy. Getting growth back — a key Truss pledge — will require more investment in the capital, from transport to housing and schools. She has promised to “transform more of our country through the power of free enterprise in the same way the Docklands were turned into the thriving streets of Canary Wharf”.
Truss may have been on a political journey, from teenage Lib-Dem and keen Remainer to the candidate of the Tory Right and hardline Brexiteer, but few can doubt her experience. She has served in government for a decade. This makes her a political survivor, a key quality for any leader.
Sunak consistently led in the first half of the process among Conservative MPs, but he has struggled to convince the members. Whether that is due to his focus on getting inflation down or his association with bringing down Boris Johnson, he appears to be far behind. Truss has benefited from the endorsement of five leadership rivals as well as the popular Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.
But Sunak has proven himself to be a competent chancellor in tough times. Were he to lose, Truss should offer him a place in her cabinet.
Like any PM who comes to power without a general election, Truss would be operating under a manifesto and a Parliament not of her own making. But unlike Theresa May, she would enjoy a significant Commons majority.
Given the enormous challenges Britain faces, we wish whoever wins the race to be our next Prime Minister well.
