So where’s the money to cut tax coming from?
Perhaps the most useful thing the candidates for the Tory party leadership might do over the next few days is to read the sobering report last week by the Office for Budget Responsibility. That report points out that “at over 90 per cent of GDP, public debt is now more than triple its level at the start of the century and more than double the around 40 per cent of GDP projected by the Treasury in the UK’s first long-term public finance report published two decades ago.”
Part of this figure is attributable to Covid spending, but not all. The report says that the Government has so far spent as much this year (1.25 per cent of GDP) to help households cope with the sharp rise in the cost of living as it did supporting the economy through the financial crisis.
Given these realities, how is it even possible to hold out the promise of tax cuts? Some candidates such as Jeremy Hunt are focused on cuts to business tax, but others — such as Liz Truss — would like cuts to personal taxation. Sajid Javid, who as health secretary was responsible for dealing with the social care crisis, wants to scrap the increase in National Insurance which was meant to fund a new deal in social care. That crisis has not gone away.
The Conservatives are the party of sound money. Unfunded tax cuts or public spending commitments are incompatible with the economic realities. Rishi Sunak is alone making a virtue of not cutting taxation, though it should be noted that he was a high-spending chancellor. But the candidates must bear in mind that they are not only seeking the support of their party members, but are campaigning to lead the country. And the constraints on public finances mean that any promise of tax cuts or of public spending increases cannot be funded by simply increasing borrowing.
This is the reality that the candidates for the leadership must face.
Good luck, Sir Mark
The new Metropolitan Police Commissioner is Sir Mark Rowley. He brings much useful experience to the role, especially in counter-terrorism. In his wide-ranging career he has covered community policing as well as serious organised crime. In short, he is well-equipped to deal with the manifold challenges of policing London.
One of those challenges is political. He has to negotiate a delicate balancing act between the priorities of the Home Secretary and the Mayor; London’s security should not fall victim to politicking between them. He must also address two concerns of equal significance: one is to cleanse the culture of the Met — which has been shown to be rotten, the other is to tackle crime.
It is unacceptable that so few burglaries are even dealt with by police, let alone solved. As we found out when the Met was taken into special measures, in the last year some 69,000 crimes have gone unrecorded. Sir Mark has made clear not only that he supports greater numbers of police on the streets — the priority of the public — but wants to embed the police in the communities they serve. In that way he can reform the culture of the Met from below, tackle crime and make London feel like a safer city.
London sizzles
The capital sizzles, people sunbathe in parks and the temperatures are Mediterranean. So why go abroad when the capital is warm, sunny and welcoming? Let’s stay put.
