Today’s figures confirm what the forecasters and the Bank of England have already predicted: the British economy is shrinking. GDP contracted by 0.2 per cent between July and September, as spiralling prices and energy bills impacted households and businesses.
We may not yet be in recession — considered to be two consecutive quarters of negative growth — but we are on the path to one. This makes the UK an outlier in global terms as the only G7 country to have seen GDP fall in this period and, more worryingly, for its economy to remain smaller than it was pre-pandemic.
All this of course comes before the Chancellor delivers the Autumn Statement next week, one that is expected to contain substantial tax rises and spending cuts. This threatens to siphon further demand out of the economy and vital money from our public services, many of which are creaking following a decade of spending restraint and now high inflation.
Some of the pain ahead cannot be avoided — Jeremy Hunt is having to clean up the mess made by his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng, whose recent attempts to absolve himself from blame over the mini-Budget have received short shrift.
But what we need is a clear plan not just for cuts, but for how the Government envisages long-term economic growth. That means offering light at the end of the tunnel, and a credible path toward future prosperity.
Ukraine’s big strides
Ukrainian forces continue to advance into territory left behind by Vladimir Putin’s retreating army in the south of the country. It follows the announcement by Russia that it would be withdrawing its troops from Kherson, a major city and the sole provincial capital captured by Moscow since the start of the February invasion.
Fleeing Russian troops also appear to have blown up the Antonovsky Bridge, a key crossing over the Dnipro river, to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing them as they try to manage their retreat.
These latest Ukrainian victories not only further demonstrate the success and bravery of its armed forces, but also vindicates the Western strategy of providing arms, expertise and cash. Peace talks remain a distant prospect, but we must continue to aid Ukraine so that it is in the strongest possible position for any future eventuality.
And our support must be for the long haul. There will be a Ukraine — cities, towns and villages — that will need our support for the rebuilding, and investigations by the international community into Russian war crimes. Russia falsely denies that it deliberately targets civilians, but its war has killed thousands, displaced millions and destroyed critical civilian infrastructure.
Sporting heaven
Now that’s what is known as a big weekend of sport. England’s women face holders New Zealand in the Rugby World Cup final in Auckland on Saturday, followed by the men taking on Pakistan in the T20 Cricket World Cup final in Melbourne on Sunday.
Meanwhile, back here, if England’s men’s rugby league team beat Samoa at the Emirates tomorrow they too will be in a showpiece final.
