The Soybean National Price Index is at a Crossroads

As I was putting tother my Monthly Analysis this past weekend, a number of markets stood out to me. In most cases it was because long-term technical patterns were playing out as expected, a clear example being the 3-month selloff in WTI crude oil being a Wave 2 move within the market’s 5-wave uptrend, as well as a case of a Benjamin Franklin Fish Analogy[i]. There were also a number of markets that seemed to contradict each other, if we put much faith in traditional intermarket technical analysis (e.g. the US dollar, US stock indexes, and crude oil all showing long-term uptrends at the same time[ii]). The market that stood out to me the most, though was the National Soybean Price Index (ZSPAUS.CM), the weighted national average cash price and the intrinsic value of the US soybean market.