It is a tough gig, but someone has to do it. In pursuit of intelligence on the state of Tory morale, I attended the Spectator magazine’s July party, the highlight of the Conservative summer calendar. You won’t find a greater density of senior Tories per square metre anywhere else. So I trawled for opinions about their chances of hanging on to power at the general election. One former cabinet minister inhaled a glug of champagne before replying: “Obviously, we will be out. The question is whether it will be for five years or 10.”
The obvious source of their despondency is that they are trailing Labour in the opinion polls by about 20 points. That unpopularity will be confirmed when the Tories take a pummelling in the trio of byelections which will take place on Thursday week. A fourth threatening byelection is in prospect after the damning verdict on Chris Pincher by the cross-party standards committee. There will be a fifth if Nadine Dorries ever gets round to making good on her cry-baby threat to quit parliament because, boohoo, she didn’t get a peerage.
