When an oil crisis begins, its onset is difficult to ignore. The global economy sees the first signs in headlines, which usually drive up prices in ways traders and the public did not anticipate. Energy ministries begin speculating over how far prices could climb and how extensive a crisis might become. The second stage of such a crisis is quieter, slower, and usually far more dangerous. It begins at sea.
Crude oil moves at a different speed than financial markets. While a barrel of oil can be repriced almost instantaneously, the cargo itself may still be in transit, sometimes for weeks. It may even have been loaded before the crisis began, with a Middle East-to-Asia crude voyage taking as much as 20 days one way. That does not include the time required for loading, discharge, rerouting, and port congestion.
