After weeks of scintillating rugby, stunning tries and shock results, the final round of the 2023 Six Nations is finally upon us.
Two sides are in contention to win the title, with Ireland and France, the two highest ranked teams in the world, both in with a chance heading into Super Saturday. Andy Farrell's side are chasing their third Six Nations Grand Slam as they face England at home, but a shock Irish defeat could see France successfully defend their title if they comprehensively beat Wales in Paris.
Ireland go into the final round as overwhelming favourites, with their opponents in Dublin still recovering from their bruising 53-10 defeat to Les Bleus at Twickenham last weekend. But the race is not won yet with a number of permutations still possible.
The rest of the table, on the face of it, looks to be pretty much decided with Scotland and England currently in third and fourth respectively and Wales and Italy occupying the bottom two places. However, there is still a chance that Warren Gatland's side could finish in the top half of the table if Saturday's games take a surprising turn.
So let's get down to it - here's what could happen at the top and bottom of the table on the final weekend:
Ireland will win the Six Nations if...
- They win against England. This would also see them win the Grand Slam
- They draw with England - however, this would also mean they lose the Grand Slam
- The get two losing bonus points by scoring four tries or more and losing by seven points or less
- They get a losing bonus point against England and France fail to get a bonus point win against Wales
- They lose to England and France either draw with or lose to Wales
France will win the Six Nations if...
- They secure a bonus point win over Wales AND Ireland lose to England without a bonus point.
Ireland and France will finish on the same amount of points if...
- Ireland lose against England and France win against Wales, but neither side secures a bonus point. This would see both finish on 19 points.
- Ireland earn a losing bonus point and France win and secure a try bonus point. This would see both finish on 20 points.
- With the two teams tied, the winner will be decided by points difference. Going into the final weekend, Ireland have a 20-point advantage with a points of difference of +66, compared to France's +46
- However, if they still cannot be separated, the Championship will come down to the number of tries scored. Both sides go into Super Saturday having scored 16 tries each.
- If they are still level after number of tries scored, then Ireland and France will both finish first and share the title.
Where could Wales finish?
- Third - It's unlikely to happen to say the least, but there is still a chance that Wales could finish in the top half of the table. For this to be realised, they will need a bonus point win over France and hope for heavy losses for Scotland and England with neither of those sides picking up losing bonus points. That would see all three finish on 10 points, with third place decided by points difference. Wales will need to win by a big margin and see Scotland and England thrashed, however, as their points difference is currently -50 compared to England's -22 and Scotland's +8.
- Fourth - Wales would again need a bonus point win against France and hope for either Scotland or England to lose heavily. England are the most likely to be on the wrong side of a heavy scoreline against Ireland, so a surprise Welsh win in Paris could see Gatland's men leapfrog them into fourth place on points difference.
- Fifth - The most likely outcome. A non-bonus point win or a draw would see Wales remain in their current position, while even a loss could see them stay put as long as Italy fail to beat Scotland.
- Sixth - Despite the win over Italy last week, the dreaded wooden spoon is still a possibility for Gatland's side. If they lose in Paris, an Italian win against Scotland would see last place decided by points difference, while a bonus point win for the Azzurri would consign Wales to only their second sixth place finish ever.
The current Six Nations 2023 table
| Pos. | P | W | D | L | PF | PA | TF | TA | TB | LB | +/- | BP | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ireland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 56 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 66 | 3 | 19 |
| 2 | France | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 87 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 46 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 92 | 84 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | England | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 84 | 106 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 1 | -22 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 106 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -50 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Italy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 75 | 123 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 1 | -48 | 1 | 1 |
READ NEXT:
Welsh rugby players' futures unconfirmed almost a month after Wales v England strike called off
Justin Tipuric's speech to Wales' players and the celebration routine that brought back smiles
Wales warned of 70-point thrashing but coach backs young duo after issues
Warren Gatland Q&A: Eight Wales stars could make final Six Nations outing and why I've made changes
