Shohei Ohtani spent the first 126 games of the season making a case to receive more than half a billion dollars when he becomes a free agent this year. Then, in Game 127, he demonstrated why some teams may be reluctant to sign him at all.
When he hits and pitches, blasting 500-foot home runs and uncorking 101-mph fastballs, Ohtani can blow our minds. But when he hits and pitches, he can also blow out his ligaments. Ohtani has torn the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow for the second time in his career, the Angels announced late Wednesday night after he left his start as a pitcher after four outs and as a hitter after one at bat (a home run, of course). He may require a second Tommy John surgery, which would sideline him as a pitcher for at least a year. In any event, he will not return to the mound this season, and he may well be done as a hitter, too. He has not addressed the media and Angels officials have not answered questions about specifically what the next month holds.
This development will have virtually no effect on the Angels’ season, which is over in every way except mathematically. But it could reshape the course of the sport for the next decade.
As recently as 24 hours ago, Ohtani, 28, was expected to be the prize of the free-agent market. From 2021 through Wednesday, only Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge has slugged more home runs than Ohtani, and only nine pitchers have recorded more strikeouts. Executives have bandied about numbers north of $600 million for terms surpassing a decade. Other stars would have waited as teams jockeyed to sell themselves to the best player in the history of baseball, offering six-man rotations, amenities galore and, of course, all that cash. Likely only after they knew they were out of the Ohtani sweepstakes would they have turned their attention to MVP candidates such as center fielder Cody Bellinger, third baseman Matt Chapman and Cy Young candidates such as Julio Urías and Blake Snell.
Now clubs must reconsider whether it makes sense to offer Ohtani as much per year for the next dozen seasons as the A’s will pay their entire roster in 2023. According to writer Jon Roegele’s exceptional Tommy John surgery list, 148 players have undergone UCL reconstruction more than once. Only 87 have returned to play at any level in the major leagues. Even accounting for the nine who had their second surgery this year and therefore could not reasonably be back yet, those odds aren’t great.
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So teams such as the Dodgers and the Mets, who were expected to lead the pack, must decide whether they are willing to pay for a deal that includes, at best, one fewer season on the mound than they expected. And if you want to be careful with your investment, shouldn’t you hold him out as a hitter, too, until he recovers? Suddenly it might make more sense to go with a one-way guy who you’re reasonably sure can play one way.
Ohtani could still become the highest-paid player in the history of the sport. He could also choose to sign a lesser deal only as a hitter and include an opt-out clause that allows him to reenter the market as a two-way player if he recovers as a pitcher. Either way, that money might not come from one of the teams we expected. If his season ended Wednesday, he finished with a 143 ERA+ (the best in the American League) and 5.8 hits allowed per nine innings (the best in baseball in 132 innings, and a 183 OPS+ and 44 home runs (both the best in baseball) in 556 plate appearances. He has a good chance of winning the AL Most Valuable Player award even if he doesn’t see another pitch.
Even if he does, he may find himself diminished at the plate. He and the Angels have speculated for years, especially since he broke out in 2021 after the team removed most of the playing-time restrictions that had limited him, that he plays better when he plays both ways. It’s something about the joy with which he plays, the way one element flows into the next. He needs to pitch in order to hit. He needs to hit in order to pitch.
Now he may be able to do neither. Ohtani is the most talented baseball player of all time. He is also a Greek tragedy: What makes him great brings him down.
