Right on cue, activist Srisuwan Janya, secretary-general of the Association for the Protection of the Constitution, went to the Election Commission on Dec 6 to file a petition calling on the poll regulator to seek the dissolution of two major parties in connection with the high-profile Chinese criminal syndicate allegedly run by businessman and suspected crime boss Chaiyanat "Tuhao" Kornchayanant.
Although he did not release the names of the parties in question to the press, Mr Srisuwan is understood to be targeting the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the main opposition Pheu Thai Party.
Mr Srisuwan cited the organic law on political parties as the basis for pursuing his action. He alleged they violated the organic law, Section 45 of which bars any party or political post holder from abetting or supporting others engaging in acts that endanger public peace and moral integrity.
He alleged that Mr Chaiyanat committed a slew of felonies, from illicit drugs to running illegal entertainment venues. The syndicate has implicated politicians, past and present, and political parties.
"It falls within the power of the EC, as a law enforcement agency under the organic law, to get to the bottom of the scandal. Any culprits, be they politicians or political post holders, or even political parties, must face the music," Mr Srisuwan said.
On receiving the petition from him, the EC is bound by duty to gather evidence. If it finds grounds for the allegation against any individuals or parties, it must recommend their indictment in the Constitutional Court.
A guilty ruling would lead to a political party being dissolved and political post-holders being banned from politics for a lengthy period.
In October, Mr Srisuwan petitioned the EC to probe the PPRP after its chief strategist Somsak Thepsutin, who is also the justice minister, admitted the ruling party accepted a 3-million-baht donation from Mr Chaiyanat last year.
Also, the "Tuhao connection" has landed Pheu Thai in hot water. The main opposition party and the SC Asset Corporation have dismissed any suggestion they befriended the Chiayanat syndicate and were linked to it. They insisted enemies were trying to ruin the reputation of the party and the company.
SC Asset this week said the company's transactions are carried out in a transparent manner and in line with the principles of good governance. The company also noted that it could only sell houses in its projects to Thai citizens and legal entities.
Its statement stressed that house purchases must be paid via bank transfers, following claims that the syndicate and its nominees had bought a number of properties in cash.
The company's shareholders also have nothing to do with the sale of houses to the crime syndicate, the firm said.
Meanwhile, the deputy chairman of Pheu Thai's strategic committee, Noppadon Pattama, said ill-intentioned people are trying to link Pheu Thai to Mr Chaiyanat's syndicate to ruin its reputation.
Pheu Thai has nothing to do with Mr Chaiyanat, Mr Noppadon said, noting efforts to link the purchase of houses developed by SC Asset and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who holds shares in the company, are politically motivated.
A police probe found that many houses owned by the nominee of the Chinese criminal syndicate tied to Mr Chaiyanat were developed by SET-listed developer SC Asset Corporation, which counts members of the Shinawatra family as its shareholders, according to a source.
According to SET filings, Ms Paetongtarn, head of Pheu Thai's inclusion and innovation advisory panel and youngest daughter of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, is the largest shareholder in SC Asset, holding 28.82% of the company's shares, followed by elder sister Pintongta Shinawatra Kunakornwong, with 27.89%.
Khunying Potjaman Damapong, former wife of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, meanwhile, is the fourth-largest shareholder with 2.78% of the shares.
Ruengkrai Leekitwattana, a former member of the PPRP, petitioned the National Anti-Corruption Commission to look at whether Sarawuth Phetphanomporn, a Pheu Thai MP for Udon Thani, declared his wife Nudeeporn's assets when he took office in May 2019.
Citing reports from Isara News Agency, Mr Ruengkrai said Ms Nudeeporn, the daughter of former deputy prime minister Pol Gen Pracha Promnok in the Yingluck Shinawatra administration, is the second-largest shareholder in a property rental company in Phuket, of which Mr Chaiyanatis the largest shareholder.
The investigation followed a raid on the Jinling Pub in Yannawa district on Oct 26, where 99 Chinese nationals were found to be under the influence of drugs.
The Tuhao scandal erupted at a time when political parties are gearing up for next year's election. A deepening police investigation looks set to overshadow the campaigning of parties at the centre of what could degenerate into a political storm, according to an observer.
A dissolution of either or both of the two major parties could spell tremendous uncertainty over the next poll, set tentatively for May 7 next year.
It would be a nightmare for candidates as they might not have enough time, while it might not even be legally permissible for them to switch and contest under other parties' banners.
But if Pheu Thai were to go under and is unable to resurface in time, a sizeable number of its voters might opt to cast their ballots for the Move Forward Party (MFP), the only large-party ally in the so-called pro-democracy bloc.
The MFP would leverage the windfall to its advantage as its bargaining power would grow after the next poll, the observer said.
- All eyes are on Anutin and Co -
Sceptics who doubted veteran power broker Newin Chidchob when he vowed to help Bhumjaithai leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, become the next prime minister must now be thinking differently, according to observers.
The second-largest party in the coalition government is going from strength to strength, demonstrating this is no idle promise by Mr Newin, who is widely seen as the party's de facto leader.
Bhumjaithai, which is known to have a limited presence beyond its political stronghold in Buri Ram, has already seen its MP numbers rise from 51 to 62 over the past few years and has added at least 31 MPs from both the government and opposition camps to its ranks this week.
Of the latest influx, 11 were from the PPRP, seven came from the Pheu Thai, five were from the MFP, two from the New Economics Party, and one each from the Chartpattanakla, Pracha Piwat, Puea Chat, Ruam Palang, Seri Ruam Thai, and Democrat parties.
Prior to the defections, these MPs were tight-lipped about their political future save for one.
Chakkapat Chaiyasarn, a Pheu Thai MP for Udon Thani, confirmed his departure from the main opposition party, saying he would quit the party the day before pledging allegiance to Bhumjaithai when it formally opened its newly renovated headquarters office yesterday.
According to a Bhumjaithai source, the party's mission is not just winning the election but also stopping the return of the "Thaksin regime". To do so, the party will have to stop Pheu Thai from achieving a landslide victory in the next poll set for May 7 next year.
Pheu Thai, which won 136 seats at the last election, aims to win at least 250 seats or half of those available in the House -- in the next polls, which will enable it to form a government on its own without any hassles.
Bhumjaithai's strategy is simple -- fielding candidates in all 400 constituencies and being successful in everyone where it has a chance, according to the source.
To bolster its chances, the party has focused on luring MPs from political families, known in Thai as "Ban Yai" [Big House] into its fold. These politicians are known to have strong connections with local politicians in various provinces, and their political clout is something the party wants to tap into.
Thanks to the fluid situation in the PPRP -- whether it is Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's indecision over his political future or divisions among groups loyal to party leader Prawit Wongsuwon, Bhumjaithai has become a favourite for those who are tired of uncertainty.
While they are keen on supporting Gen Prayut, some PPRP MPs could not wait for the prime minister to decide. They also grew weary of the party that awarded cabinet seats and key political positions to factions close to the party leadership instead of on merit.
"We have to find a new party that has financial resources and understands how politics works and what politicians need," said Mr Chakkapat, who decided to defect.
"We're with the Bhumjaithai to block a landslide Pheu Thai victory. So it shouldn't break the hearts of the PPRP heavyweights. We may work together after the polls," said the MP, apparently referring to the observation that Bhumjaithai is an alternative for voters who do not want to see the return of the Thaksin regime.
According to observers, Bhumjaithai is expected to fare strongly at the next polls if the House completes its four-year term in March.
But, the party is unlikely to surpass Pheu Thai, which will likely finish the largest party thanks to strong support in the constituency system. The opposition party is also predicted to win 20-30 party-list seats from the two-ballot system and the change in the party-list calculation method.
The observers said that Bhumjaithai would certainly outperform the PPRP, and the party would also stand to gain more constituency seats following the mass defections. However, the party should not expect big gains from the party-list system as its overall popularity is no match for Pheu Thai, the MFP and the Democrat Party.
