It’s the one question that the financial publication industry consistently refuses to answer: how likely is it that the broadcasted thesis happened because of the signal or undervaluation and not just by random chance?
Pretty much all finpub articles offer an investment or trading idea; otherwise, what would be the point of reading the material? If there was no edge to be found, then you should simply put your money into the benchmark S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and call it a day. But instead, the concept of reading financial analyses is to extract alpha — generating returns that exceed what you’d expect from passive exposure to a broader index.
