The point behind Schrödinger’s cat is a simultaneous contradiction. The hypothetical situation leaves open the possibility that a cat might exist or might not at the same time because it’s sitting in a closed box. We only know and understand reality once we make a concrete observation — the cat is gone because we can’t see it, for example — but the other side of the coin still exists.
This is what it’s like to watch Derek Carr play professional quarterback.
The New Orleans Saints starter ostensibly has the talent to succeed at the highest level of football. A big arm. Sometimes a good touch. Decent athleticism. Solid experience. But when you watch Carr play — you know, make an observation — you see a 10-year veteran incessantly focused on throwing five yards short of the sticks and who sails many passes wide before plays even begin. He’s a streaky player who can’t run a functional, high-flying offense anymore. Honestly, if you don’t include his outlier 2016, it’s hard to say he’s ever done so.
Carr is Schrödinger’s quarterback, a player who looks simultaneously good and bad. After a 31-24 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday night, where Carr predictably fell just short of salvaging one of the worst three quarters I’ve ever seen a quarterback play — it’s apparent he won’t take the Saints anywhere meaningful. Yes, even with the caveat of a Foster Moreau dropped touchdown that should’ve forced overtime in the final moments, little felt encouraging.
— not highlight heaven (@ABsneurosurgeon) October 20, 2023
When the Saints signed Carr in the off-season, they thought they had made a calculated risk. According to Over The Cap, they made Carr the 16th-highest-paid NFL quarterback by the $100 million guaranteed on his contract. That same contract only carries a real commitment until the end of 2024, when eating $17.1 million in dead space doesn’t seem all that fatal. They did it because they had hoped Carr would be enough to elevate a core with some great remaining talent (Marshon Lattimore and Demario Davis, for two) from the late 2010s squad that won five playoff games. (Also, because general manager Mickey Loomis wouldn’t understand salary cap management if it was on the back of his hand.)
Again, Carr resembles everything you’d want in a prototypical starting quarterback — someone who could theoretically lift the Saints just by being merely competent.
Through seven games, Carr has fallen everywhere short of that low bar. Per RBDSM.com, his Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) composite is 0.068, good for an uninspiring 17th in the NFL. He only completes around 65 percent of his passes — which isn’t even good anymore in a league that sees many teams average at least 30 pass attempts — because he avoids risks. On Thursday night, the Jaguars and defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell, for one, sometimes took away any New Orleans big plays with a standard Cover 2 shell. The way Carr avoided it by spending 45 minutes force-feeding Alvin Kamara five yards from the line of scrimmage as if he started him on his fantasy football team boggled the mind.
If there was a play to be made in the middle of the field, Carr and his receivers, particularly Chris Olave, took forever to get on the same page. There were more than a few stances of off-timing or poor spacing at the worst moments. A prime breakout candidate after an Offensive Rookie of the Year-caliber campaign last season, it’s almost remarkable Olave has still produced well for the Saints this year. He is a product of his quarterback, a signal-caller who is, every so often, obsessed with throwing plays away before turning on the afterburners late.
Here’s a perfect first-half juxtaposition of Kamara and Olave from Thursday night. It is an encapsulation of how Carr often utilizes them and his other teammates. Better said, it is a representation of how Carr can put the Saints offense in neutral:
- Kamara (a running back): Eight receiving targets for 60 yards (finished with 14 targets, 12 catches, and 91 receiving yards)
- Olave: Seven targets for 17 yards (finished with 15 targets, seven catches, and 57 yards)
No wonder the Saints have scored at least 30 points in a game just once this season. And no wonder their offense looks like it’s pulling teeth sometimes. Until a late fourth-quarter rally against Jacksonville, New Orleans had scored one touchdown in 10 home quarters.
If the below early sequence where the Jaguars couldn’t stop stepping on rakes doesn’t do Carr’s flavorless Saints offense justice, I don’t know what will:
Good lord.
For posterity, that is an opposition opening-possession touchdown. A missed field goal after a stalled red zone trip because of bizarre throws like this. A three-and-out after starting near midfield thanks to a goofy fumble. And, of course, a Jacksonville unofficial second-possession touchdown to punctuate how easy it is to score when the quarterback is dialed in and on the same page with his teammates for a full game. That is something the Saints do not possess, which is why they’re 3-4 and treading water.
New Orleans’ situation with Carr isn’t entirely hopeless. Before an early-season shoulder injury, Carr looked more comfortable completing throws downfield and in the middle of the field. In this case, Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas looked somewhat capable of spearheading a vertical-based offense that wasn’t special but remained as effective as needed. Carr has clearly tried to play through his ailment — which initially seemed as if it would sideline him for a little while — and the effect has borne out these mostly uninspired results. The Saints were also without starting tackles Ryan Ramczyk and James Hurst Thursday night. Part of Carr’s focus on check-downs stemmed from a line that could barely hold up to a semi-competent Jacksonville pass rush.
The problem is that this is who Carr has been more or less his entire career. While he’s obviously hurt now, it is impossible to distinguish whether he’s healthy or on the field with an injured shoulder when you watch him play. His regular style of play is tantamount to how a limited player would feature. So, while the Saints can move on from him after next season, that is two wasted years of that same retooled core they’re currently leaning on to prop up their chances at winning.
By the time Carr is done with New Orleans, it could be closer to a rebuild than the NFC South title they’re still hoping to capture in 2023. That, above all, is the real price you pay for an anonymous quarterback who appears to have the goods in spots but can’t consistently deliver. A thought experiment playing quarterback.
