The Saints had a 98.1% win probability when they punted at 4th and 1 from the Tampa 44 with 5:31 left. pic.twitter.com/uu0jEECXyr
Buy Saints Tickets— Mike Beauvais (@MikeBeauvais) December 6, 2022
This really tells the whole story, doesn’t it? Depending on which sources you went with, the New Orleans Saints had a win probability of something between 97% and 98% late in Monday night’s game with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They were leading by double digits and dropped a punt at the Tampa Bay 9-yard line with just over 3 minutes left in regulation.
Then Tom Brady got busy, with some help from Paulson Adebo on an unnecessary penalty for defensive pass interference that moved the Buccaneers offense 44 yards upfield, all the way up to the New Orleans goal line. And the Saints had no response.
Look at their final possession. Alvin Kamara runs for 3 yards. Facing 2nd-and-7 from his own 28-yard line, Pete Carmichael Jr. took Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed off the field and subbed in practice squad wideout Kirk Merritt. With no quick options to throw to, Andy Dalton was sacked at the 18-yard line. On third down with the game — and the season — on the line, Carmichael dialed up a pass to Taysom Hill down the season in-between three Buccaneers defenders.
To their credit, Dalton placed the ball perfectly. And at first, Hill held onto it. But the collision jarred the ball loose and the Saints had to punt with 2:39 left in regulation. That was all too easy for Tampa Bay.
All these details and more are illustrated on the interactive win probability chart from NumberFire, which you can find here. It shows how the Saints gave it up in this game, where they went wrong, and which plays had the greatest impact on their loss. It’s altogether a heavy indictment of Dennis Allen and Carmichael’s poor situational decision-making. How much longer can this be allowed to continue? What more do Mickey Loomis and Gayle Benson need to see before demanding accountability?
