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Fortune
Fortune
Shawn Tully

The S&P is heading below 3,000. Basic math (and a metric beloved by famed economist Robert Shiller) suggests it

NYSE trader (Credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Stocks have suffered a rough September, with the S&P 500 dropping from 4,516 at the month's start to 4,275 by midday on September 26, a drop of 5.3% in just 18 trading days.

Of course, the apparent cause is the sharp, sudden spike in long-term interest rates, epitomized by the month-to-date leap in the 10-year Treasury yield by almost 50 basis points to 4.55%. So far, neither the rise in rates nor the cratering in stocks has done much to stir the Wall Street bulls to lower their forecasts for 2023, with Goldman Sachs predicting a year-end number of 4,500, and Citigroup at 4,600.

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