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Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

The Russia-Iran-Assad ‘axis of the vulnerable’ is cracking in Syria

The so-called “axis of the vulnerable” is breaking in Syria. Starting in 2016, Russia and Iran, propping up the regime of Bashar al-Assad, needed more than a year of bombing, ground assaults and siege to break the rebel opposition in the east of Syria’s largest city, Aleppo.

Now, in 2024, the rebels needed less than four days to liberate the city and most of Aleppo province. They also regained territory in neighbouring Idlib province and moved south into northern Hama before the Assad regime established defensive lines.

Russian forces remained in their bases on the Mediterranean. And Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah were caught by the rebel advance in their positions in north-west Syria. They abandoned them, but not before at least two commanders were slain.

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